This in from former NHL GM and top player agent Brian Lawton, his belief that the Edmonton Oilers should definitely match the $4.6 million per year offer for Philip Broberg.
“I would never let him go,” Lawton said, speaking to Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now. “That doesn’t mean Edmonton will do that. Everybody has their own opinion. I played the game. I was a forward. People always ask, ‘Why do you care so much about defence?’ Especially a team like Edmonton that is so high-powered, but at the end of the day you’ve got to have good ‘D’ to control the game. If you don’t, you’re dead in the water.
“I find defencemen to be the hardest thing to acquire in this game, and even though the story is still unwritten on Philip Broberg, he still showed some incredible poise and progress last year, and I believe that no matter what he’ll be a Top 4 D in this league.”.
Lawton said he was not surprised by the amount offered to Broberg, roughly $4.6 million per year on a two-year deal. It’s clear to every NHL manager what the compensation levels are for signing another team’s NHL restricted free agents, and the St. Louis Blues offered Broberg the maximum they could without having to give up a first round pick.
“It’s getting to a point where you can put a lot of pressure on a team and still have to give up only a second round pick,” Lawton said.
“If believe in that player, a second-rounder is not that much to pay for a young player. Even if St. Louis is totally wrong, it’s still worth the gamble if you think Philip Broberg is going to be a Top 4 defenceman… To find a Top 4 d-man that is so young in this league, this is a rarity. It’s so hard to get D in this league right now.”
Lawton said Edmonton has a lot of options here. “I’m very optimistic for them not only to solve this but to come out better. I think they have a lot of options. It may force their timeline on making decisions but I think they have a chance to come out of this better.”
The worst case scenario with Broberg is that he flops and the Oilers are forced to buy out the last year of contract. “Your bail out is you buy him out. It costs you $750,000 essentially for the year. That’s your worst case scenario. You’re not going to lead with that, but this is the way you manage a club. You look at the upside, you look at the downside.”
Should Oilers have been more pro-active?
Lawton also said the Oilers would have done well to be pro-active sign up both Broberg and Holloway to new two-year contracts when the two players were sent to the minors in the winter of 2023-24.
He and Stauffer discussed it at that time and both had agreed then it would be a solid move. Stauffer said earlier this week that top Oilers management instructed Oilers GM Ken Holland to get Broberg and Holloway signed at that time last winter.
If the Oilers had demonstrated faith in the two players by offering them two-year deals, as opposed to one year deals, that would have been welcomed by the players, Lawton said. “Players just want to know they’re going to get a chance eventually. In their case, you can really sign them for any amount up to $1.1 million. It’s not going to hurt you no matter what… Even if you’re wrong it doesn’t hurt you because you can always get those players off your cap (by sending them to the AHL).
“It didn’t happen. I’m sure Ken Holland had a lot of reasons it didn’t happen. A lot of reasons are your past experiences. Let’s be honest — offer sheets don’t happen very often in the NHL. But they are absolutely accepted and can be a part of business. You can’t be surprised if it happens. As management of a team, you’re asked to look behind every tree for danger and to consider it.”
Lawton said he had heard whispers there might be a Broberg offer sheet and said St. Louis made a very smart move in making the offers. “St. Louis recognized that this was maybe a blind spot for the Edmonton Oilers.”
it’s a tougher decision on whether or not to match on Holloway’s offer sheet, “Lawton said. You would match if you think that Holloway will be a Top 6 forward on your team. “If he’s just a third line winger, then you probably can live without him at this stage in my opinion at that number.”
My take
1. It’s always great to hear Lawton’s take, given he has vast experience in hockey as a player, manager and agent, and he’s articulate and open enough to speak well and speak his mind.
Such is the strength of Lawton’s viewpoint I thought he would have made an excellent GM of the Oilers, but not to be.
2. I agree with Lawton both on the primacy of having great d-men, and also, specifically, on the benefits of matching Broberg’s offer sheet. Broberg has size, skating speed, impressive agility, and he’s performed in a Top 4 role in the NHL playoffs. I’d suggest there’s a 70-30 chance he’ll come through in a Top 4 role for the Oilers this year. You don’t want to lightly give up on a player like that, certainly not for a second round draft pick. That would represent atrocious asset management.
3. Yes, if the Oilers keep Broberg they might have to move out Brett Kulak and/or Cody Ceci. Both veterans are solid NHLers, but Kulak tried and failed to succeed as a Top 4 d-man with the Oilers. He’s a conundrum, as he’s always played exceptionally well in the playoffs, and he’s a great 4/5 d-man to have, but if you have to move him to keep Broberg, I would move him. This is even more so with Ceci, who is still a solid NHLer, but he struggled in a Top 4 role last year, at least when paired up wth Darnell Nurrse. I think we can all agree that the Ceci-Nurse pairing has been tried, it’s failed and it should not be attempted again.
Ceci might be able to play Top 4 minutes if he’s paired with Broberg, but Broberg seems to be a much better bet in any future pairing with the enigmatic Nurse, whose game fell apart for much of the 2024 playoffs.
4. As for Holloway, I’d also love to see the Oilers keep him, but that will come down to salary cap considerations. At worst, if Holloway flops, I suspect the Oilers could waive him this year and another team would pick him up. At best, if Kane is out for many, many months, Holloway is a decent bet to step up into a power forward role on the Oilers.
Staples on politics
Baby boomers rocketing on e-bikes a new menace on Alberta’s shared trails
At the Cult of Hockey
STAPLES: Bombshell news of Broberg’s unhappiness in Edmonton
McCURDY: Blues going after Oilers where it hurts, trying to grab their youth and speed