This in from the 2 Mutts Podcast, big news around the Edmonton Oilers contract negotiations with Leon Drasaitl and the health status of Evander Kane:
The podcast reports: “Leon Draisaitl contract extension talks are going great, there has been some talk that Leon’s camp would ask for $14.5M on AAV but he’s willing to take less than that to stay in Edmonton & it will be an 8 year deal from what we are told. His deal should be 8 years, $13.3M-$13.5M. Leon is taking less to stay in Edmonton.
“Evander Kane will be ready for training camp, he will take part in the Captain Skates come early September. Going on LTIR isn’t the plan according to sources. Kane & his family have invested in staying in Edmonton over the next two years & beyond. The Ducks & Kings have interest in Kane but he’s not looking to waive his NMC at this time. He WANTS to be an Oiler!
“Dylan Holloway & Philip Broberg are expected to sign 2 year deals next week, Holloway AAV could be $1.3M & Broberg’s AAV could be $1.1M.”
My take
1. This is all big news if it’s credible. The question is how much weight to put in the reporting of the 2 Mutts podcasters. At this point, given their track record, I put weight in it, which is why I’m reporting it. This isn’t to say that all of that is reported here will come to pass. Even top NHL insiders can’t claim all theie insider rumours come to pass. But this is to say I’m convinced that the 2 Mutts podcast has NHL sources and a track record of reporting credible rumours.
2. Most recently, on July 18, six days before the Oilers announced that Stan Bowman was to be hired as Edmonton Oilers GM, the 2 Mutts reported, “Stan Bowman & Edmonton Oiers CEO Jeff Jackson have chatted about the open GM position the #Oilers have, with the great work Stan Bowman has done with the Respect Group & all the other good work he’s done a road back to the NHL is differently coming very soon. Could it be with the Oilers? We shall see but it’s trending that way from our understanding.”
Of course, others had reported the Bowman-to-Edmonton rumour, including top insiders such as E.J. Hradek at NHL.com in early July, but by mid-July the Bowman talk had died down substantially and there was much talk about the Oilers going in a different direction. Then the 2 Mutts speculated on this. Obviously the speculation turned out to be true, a major boost to their credibility.
3. The 2 Mutts Hockey Podcast has been around for years now and has had numerous interviews with NHL players, commentators and insiders. It’s hosted by Joshua Marshall and Clay Vanderham, with Trevor Ruptash, Sonny Sekhon and Brody McIntyre also chipping in. Marshall tells me the podcasters are close to a number of NHL players and in recent years has broken such stories as Craig Conroy becoming Calgary GM, Mikhail Backlund signing with the Flames, the Milan Lucic trade to Calgary, the Alex Petrovic trade to Edmonton and Tyler Toffoli signing in San Jose. Marshall shared with me information about his sources. All this lends weight to what they now report. Frankly, it’s an excellent scoop and of great interest to Oilers fans.
4. If the Oilers to bring back both Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, and if all of the team is then going to compete for the Stanley Cup, it’s not just a good for Draisaitl and McDavid to consider taking discounts on their new contracts — just as other Oilers have already done this summer — it’s crucial. No matter what the two are worth, and now matter how outstanding they are as players, the closer they get to taking 30% of Edmonton salary cap allotment in any given season, the less likely the Oilers are have to cap space to keep and acquire other top players need to win the Cup.
5. If Draisaitl were to take the lower end of the 2 Mutts’ estimate, $13.3 million a year, that is the near the top end for what he can McDavid can be paid and still give the Oilers an excellent shot of them winning the Cup. When you look at the average cap hit of the top two highest paid players of Stanley Cup winners in the cap era, 2006-2024, it’s 23.1%.
This year, McDavid will be paid $12.5 million, 15% of the cap, and Draisaitl will get 8.5 million, 9.7%. Together they will make 23.9% of the NHL’s $88 million cap, giving Edmonton it’s best shot to win the Cup in years.
But what of years to come?
If Draisaitl signs for $13.3 million per year, he will take 14.3% of Edmonton’s projected $93 million salary cap in 2025-26, with McDavid at $12.5 million taking 13.4%. Together that is 27.7 per cent of the cap, which is a higher percentage than we’ve seen from all but two Stanley Cup-winning teams in the cap era. In other words, it will be tough to win with McDavid and Draisaitl taking so much of the cap in 2025-26, but not impossible. Added to that the high level of performance expected out of McDavid and Draisaitl, and the Oilers will have an OK shot at winning the Cup and the same will go if McDavid also signs for $13.3 million for the 2026-27 season.
In the seasons after that, as the cap is expected to go up, McDavid and Draisaitl will take an ever low percentage of the cap. Of course, as they age as players, they will need more help to win, so it’s imperative there will be more money for other talented players.
Again, to treat the two players fairly and give the Oilers their best shot at winning the Cup, I’d prefer as an Oilers fan to see them come back at $12.5 million per year, McDavid’s current salary, but $13.3 million per is arguably workable in terms of winning the Cup.
5. As for Kane, it’s excellent news if his health is rebounding. If he and Draisaitl had been healthy in the Stanley Cup Final, I strongly suspect that Edmonton would have beat Florida. But not to be. And such is hockey. Injury is part of the game, part of the equation that decides who gets to experience the joy of winning as opposed to the misery of defeat.