African swine fever (ASF) could be heading to the UK, a leaked government report warns.

The highly contagious viral disease of domestic and wild pigs has a mortality rate of almost 100 per cent but it does not affect humans nor does it affect other animal species.


The virus is being spread through illegal pork products.

According to a report by The Sun, a leaked government document revealed it is “probable” that the virus is now bound for the UK – and it could hit within months.

ASF outbreaks across Europe mapped

ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs and cases in wild boar across Europe from July 2023 to January 2024

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

The warning from the Cabinet Office’s emergency COBR Unit alert comes after port health officials warned in January they are “barely scratching the surface” of illegal pork meat entering at Dover.

They told of “devastating consequences” if African swine fever came to the UK, adding that it could decimate pig farms.

Since September 2022, when border checks were first introduced, sixty tonnes of illegal pork meat have been seized.

Lucy Manzano, head of port health and public protection at Dover District Council, said: “If it lands here it will result in UK culling programmes and export bans.

“It will absolutely have devastating consequences for our pig farmers, wild pig community and reputation.”

A UK Government spokesperson said: “African swine fever is a disease that affects pigs and not humans.

“Preventing an outbreak in the UK remains one of our key biosecurity priorities and we have published extensive information and guidance about the disease.

“We work closely with Port Health Authorities and Border Force to ensure our strict border controls are enforced.”

Border checks

Since September 2022, when border checks were first introduced, sixty tonnes of illegal pork meat have been seized

Getty Images

As of April 30, new sanitary and phytosanitary checks have been imposed on food and agricultural products imported from the EU.

Ministers have said this is to better detect pests and disease and, therefore, improve biosecurity on the UK’s trade border.

Lord Trees, who is a professor of veterinary parasitology, said these checks will “reduce the likelihood” of importing infectious diseases such as African swine fever, which he labelled a “potential threat to the UK pig population”.

However, Ms Manzano fears these checks may have come too late.

The virus originated in Africa, spread through Eastern Europe, and resulted in an outbreak in China in 2018.

ASF has rapidly spread throughout China, resulting in the death of approximately 40 per cent of its swine.

Since January 2022 ASF has been reported as present in five different world regions in 53 countries.