By Raheel Raza and Rizwan Mohammad
An anti-incumbency fatigue of the kind exhibited by voters in the British parliamentary election and then in France is unmistakably present in Canada. People are angry and poised for change.
If the byelection results in Toronto-St. Paul’s and a string of pollster predictions are a good guide, a change of guard looks all but certain for Ottawa in October 2025.
What does change mean for Canadians and how much of it will Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre be able to deliver?
When and if Poilievre takes charge, he will find a different world than that experienced by his unpopular predecessor. U.S. President Joe Biden will be out of the Oval Office and if the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee stays as is (it looks like a long and turbulent autumn ahead on the U.S. political landscape), then a Kamala Harris-Donald Trump matchup will create even more division in the U.S., as neither of the candidates is a unifier.
A Trump win would be a victory for the informal, invisible world alliance that is pushing hard to replace a U.S.-led international order with a vague notion of multipolarity, while a Harris win would mean that racial tensions and divisions in American politics would sharpen. In both cases, Canada is certain to feel tremors travelling across its southern borders. A Tory government may well be better equipped to navigate these complex geopolitical headwinds than the Liberals, but they won’t be easy to navigate.
Like every grassroots democracy, Canada has a range of political caucuses with often competing agendas. For the past nine years, the Trudeau Liberals have headed a contingent with a very different worldview than what Conservatives espouse. The economy, immigration and Canadian values stand out as sticking points.
On the economy, conditions are much tougher for the average Canadian compared with nine years ago. Like most of the world, Canada faced economic turbulence due to COVID but the kind of recovery that the U.S. and other economies have enjoyed never arrived for Canadians. On top of that, the country is running a huge deficit and books are expected to take years to balance. For Poilievre, financing the deficit by raising taxes is not an option. Expanding the economic base is. Reducing expenditures is definitely a route he could take but it would slow growth. Conservatives have their work cut out for themselves as Canadians would like to see a quick economic turnaround, like that of their southern neighbours.
On immigration, the Conservatives are expected to do better and do it quickly. The Canadian immigration system, once an envy of the world, has failed to deliver under the Liberals, who have dragged down the economy as a result. Here a quick fix is possible. Immigration policy went off-rails when government, catering to the demands of big business, largely abandoned need- and skill-based immigration and opted to bring in cheap labour. In a social welfare state like Canada, it’s a recipe for disaster. Most of this cheap labour — students and others on temporary visas — jacked up the social spending bill manyfold without contributing much to the economy. The Conservatives can score quickly on this count by reverting to need-based immigration and off-loading those in the pipeline.
The toughest part for a potential Poilievre government would be to restore Canadian values and repair the social and political damage that foreign interference and identity politics has wreaked on our society.
The recent anti-Israel protests, rising antisemitism, foreign agencies operating on Canadian soil, and the regressive political agendas of some ethnic communities will be an enormous challenge for any incoming government. The ghettoization of Canadian society in the name of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is also straining the social compact among various communities.
Can Poilievre and Co. deliver? We’re not sure. If and when the Conservatives take charge, they will quickly realize how precious immigrant community votes are. If they don’t win the Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver, they won’t be able to hold on to power — especially when the Bloc Québécois are ready to give Conservatives a run for their money. Keeping fingers crossed and expectations low is a good plan.
National Post
Raheel Raza and Mohammad Rizwan are Directors of the Council of Muslims Against Antisemitism.