It’s come down to this for Justin Trudeau as he seeks a way to win back cranky voters.
Another big-spending budget loaded with pricey benefits fell flat. A tax raid on Canadians graceless enough to buy houses before they became unaffordable failed to impress. Stirring up resentment against “the very wealthy” did nothing to reverse polls.
So now he hopes to pull Mark Carney out of a hat like a rabbit at a carnival side show. Presto! Who says Liberals don’t know how to please a crowd?
The idea behind the prime minister’s attempt to recruit the former central bank governor for a stint in government goes like this: Carney is an experienced and widely respected figure; adding him to caucus would prove the Liberals remain able to attract star candidates, boost Trudeau’s diminishing standing and give a lift to a dispirited government that badly needs one. Carney, meanwhile, could dip his toe in electoral politics in anticipation of one day succeeding Trudeau in the top job.
It’s a pleasant enough storyline but the plot remains iffy. Should Carney decline to take the bait, Trudeau’s overtures achieve the opposite of the intended. If a known Liberal sympathizer like Carney can’t be talked into joining the team, what’s it say about a regime that’s stuck deep down in the polls, and a leader who can’t find a path to lead them out of it? In chasing after Carney, Trudeau has already succeeded in undercutting Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, a loyalist who’s been reduced to insisting she retains the prime minister’s confidence but can’t say for sure how long it will last.
There’s no question that Carney is an impressive figure. The former governor of both Canada’s and the UK’s central banks, he currently juggles several important and demanding positions. As chairman and head of transitional investing at Brookfield Asset Management, and chairman of Bloomberg Inc., he oversees big firms with broad interests in a range of corporate and financial activities. He serves as UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, and was recently retained by Britain’s new Labour government to develop a National Wealth Fund tasked with generating private investment to kickstart the moribund British economy.
He’s also a Liberal who has never specifically denied suggestions he harbours political aspirations. That being the case, is an uncertain role in an unpopular government the best place to begin?
Courting Carney fits neatly in the Liberal tradition of seeking a saviour to rescue the party in times of trouble, but what’s in it for Carney? What role would he fill? The obvious guess would be finance minister, but that would mean playing second fiddle to a prime minister whose financial record is questionable at best but who retains a high opinion of his skills. It would also require winning a seat at a time no Liberal seat can be considered safe, as the recent Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection showed. Losing his first race would hardly be a great start for a would-be prime minister. Even if he won he’d have to do it again in 15 months, and there’s the danger the Liberals could pull off a comeback victory next year, reducing any likelihood Trudeau felt the need to make way for a successor.
If not finance minister, what? Why hire someone of Carney’s skills and then put him in any position but the one he’s obviously suited for? Though a keen environmentalist, he can arguably accomplish at least as much, and possibly more, outside a formal government role with all its restrictions and political uncertainties.
There are numerous other questions that arise from the prime minister’s project. Carney is unproven as a campaigner, and there’s a distinct possibility his allure wouldn’t prove as intoxicating outside the bubblefied environs of the Liberal brain trust as it does within. Notwithstanding his upbringing in Edmonton, much of the country beyond Ottawa might not see a Harvard-educated economist and Goldman Sachs alumunus as their idea of a godsend.
There’s also reason for concern in the prime minister’s weak record with accomplished people who — unlike him — come to office having already established successful careers. High-profile departures include Bill Morneau, Mark Garneau, Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, all of whom expressed disappointment in their experience in Ottawa, depicting a distant prime minister it was difficult to see one-on-one, much less influence.
None of Morneau, Garneau, Wilson-Raybould or Philpott could be trained to nod on command as required of Trudeau loyalists. Would Carney be any different? Freeland has proven far more accommodating to the prime minister’s way of thinking yet finds herself dangling in uncertainty, aware there are voices whispering against her and blamed for the unpopularity of her latest budget — not because of the policies themselves but for her unsatisfactory communication skills.
Is Carney the great communicator who could convince Canadians that higher taxes and more deficits are the answer to a prosperous future? Is he willing to say so even if he doesn’t believe it, or to insist on alternative measures the prime minister doesn’t want to hear?
The reality of the situation is that the Trudeau government needs Carney far more than he needs them. Efforts to lure him make perfect sense for a government on the ropes; why he would want to be lured doesn’t. It’s far from clear he could reverse Liberal fortunes or convince the prime minister to accept measures that might stem its slide.
If he does give in to Trudeau’s blandishments, it would be an act of charity. He should ask for a tax receipt.
National Post