The regression in Ryan Nugent-Hopkin’s game is alarming.
The longest-serving Oilers player can’t be running out of gas, can he? His birth certificate says he’s only turning 32 in a month’s time, just before the playoffs start. That’s not old by today’s NHL standards.
But while goaltender Stuart Skinner is an incessant target of unhappy Edmonton Oiler fans — seemingly it’s his fault every game the team loses — it should be pointed out that many of the players in front of Skinner are far from pulling their weight.
And that certainly includes RNH, who has played the second most games in Oilers history (945) behind former GM and Hall of Fame defenceman Kevin Lowe’s 1,037.
Nugent-Hopkins had 104 points in 2022-23. He had 67 points last season. He has 39 points today, with 17 Oilers games left, including a game against the New York Islanders Friday night.
He’s been an admirable member of the Oilers since he joined the NHL at 18 — dependable, skilled, strong defensively, cleaning up lots of messes with his hockey IQ without the puck. The 104-point season was awesome. The 67 points last year was above his normal wheelhouse. He’s had two other 60-plus seasons since starting in the NHL as a teenager in 2011 and four others with 50 points or more. Still, consistent.
But 39 points right now? Playing about 440 even-strength minutes with Connor McDavid?
That is an ‘uh-oh” stat. Has his game dropped off that much?
Hard to fathom. Again, Nugent-Hopkins, who has 738 points, doesn’t turn 32 until April 12. He’s six years younger than Corey Perry.
“No, Nugent-Hopkins hasn’t lost a step,” said an NHL scout.
But he isn’t forcing the issue when he’s got the puck. He’s certainly been more dangerous over the years than he is now.
Is he saving it for the post-season?
“Mind says go, body says no. It could be because they went through a long haul to get where they were last year and right now the body’s saying no until the right time (playoffs),” said a longtime NHL executive, looking at the big picture.
The regular-season snapshot doesn’t look good, though.
“I see a player who’s not going into the hard areas to create offence. He’s on the outside all the time. He’s playing safe. He’s not an active player.”
“When you play on the outside, you look slow and you play slow. The other team catches up to you with numbers back, all the time, and he’s having to play through those numbers,” said the NHL executive.
What’s really disturbing is his even-strength points drop-off.
He had 43 five-on-five points (plus four short-handed) in his 104-point season.
He had 35 last season (plus three short-handed) when he finished with 67 overall points.
He has 22 today, in the 64 games he’s played.
To put that in perspective, ex-Oilers winger Warren Foegele, who left for Los Angeles in free agency July 1 when the Oilers weren’t of a mind to pay him $3.5 million AAV, even after his career NHL season (20 goals, 41 points) in 2023-24, has 37 points with the Kings. All 37 points are even strength — that would put him third among Oilers forwards this season, behind Leon Draisaitl and McDavid.
On the Kings, only Adrian Kempe, with 42, has more event-strength points than Foegele.
Not to pile on Nugent-Hopkins, but Foegele also has 19 goals in L.A. and is plus-27. Nugent-Hopkins has 16 goals and is plus-1. Foegele has spent much of his first season in L.A. with young Quinton Byfield as his centre.
RNH has had 33 games without a point this season. He’s had 97 for a little less than half of his even-strength minutes but No. 93 only has one 5-on-5 goal all season assisted by McDavid. What’s up with that?
Nugent-Hopkins, who has one goal in his last 16 games, in Washington on Feb. 23, has played 906 even-strength minutes this season in 64 games, averaging 14:10 a night. Foegele has played 898 even-strength minutes in L.A., averaging 14:02. But, Foegele has 37 even-strength points and Nugent-Hopkins has 22.
Again, Nugent-Hopkins is the only Oilers forward on all three disciplines regularly, which shows his versatility, also his trust from the coaches. He’s played 195:13 on the power play, 10 more minutes than McDavid, actually, although the Oilers captain has played five fewer games. That’s the second-most forward power-play minutes behind Draisaitl’s 211:50. Nugent-Hopkins also is on the first short-hand forward tandem, mostly with Adam Henrique. His 110:32 short-handed minutes is No. 1 by Oilers forwards, with Henrique next at 104:56.
But Nugent-Hopkins has been a staple on the No. 1 line on left wing with 97 and Zach Hyman, except when coach Kris Knoblauch goes nuclear and puts 97 and 29 together with Hyman, something that’s happening with regularity lately. Just as Todd McLellan, Dave Tippett and Jay Woodcroft leaned into that tag-team as head knocks.
And there’s not nearly enough five-on-five, where most of the game’s played.
Knoblauch started Nugent-Hopkins on the wing with McDavid and Hyman for the first period in New Jersey Thursday but went to 29 from the second period on. Nugent-Hopkins centred either the second or third lines after that.
“If you’re going to play top-line minutes you’ve got to contribute some offence,” Knoblauch told reporters the other day. “When you’re on the top line, that’s what I expect of him, because that’s what I think of him.”
Nugent-Hopkins was a very good playoff performer last spring with 22 points in 25 games and the last three post-seasons, he has 47 points in 53 games. So, he comes through when they need it — his Game 5 in Dallas in the Western Conference final last June was huge, two goals in a 3-1 win.
But, those 22 5-on-5 points right now, especially so late in this season?
That’s a gut-check.