Canada is about to get a new prime minister sometime this week, but what we really need is an election. That could come within days, but perhaps not as soon as this Sunday as had previously been discussed.
The transition from the Trudeau administration to the Carney administration will take place in the coming days. Trudeau remains PM and Carney is simply leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, but by Wednesday, that should change.
What comes after that is the subject of much speculation.
There had been talk of the Liberals calling an election as early as March 16, this coming Sunday with voting on April 22, just after Easter. Yet, with so few candidates nominated, the Liberals are in a scramble to ensure they have representation in every riding in the country.
Now there is discussion of Carney calling an election on March 23, to give the party more time to get organized. Voting day would then either be on April 28, or given the lack of candidates, May 5 to allow more time to recruit and vet potential Liberal MPs.
To celebrate Mark Carney’s decisive victory over two women to become Liberal Leader, I offer up Just Trudeau’s words.
“Everywhere, women’s rights and women’s progress is under attack.”
Trudeau also beat two women to become Liberal Leader in 2013. pic.twitter.com/z6xOtWFOjW— Brian Lilley (@brianlilley) March 10, 2025
The one thing the Liberals don’t appear to want to do at this point is to face the House of Commons and a series of confidence votes on March 24.
That could change given the musings of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh who — back in December — said he was definitely voting the Liberal government down. That comment came after the NDP propped up the Liberals for two years and only when it was too late to force them into an election with Justin Trudeau still as leader.
An NDP official, speaking on background, said the most the party would be willing to do would be to help the government pass supports for workers, such as expanding employment insurance for workers impacted by the Trump tariffs.
“There’s no blank cheque,” the official said.
Speaking to Liberals, Conservatives and NDP operatives in Ottawa, no one expects the House of Commons to resume, though. At some point between now and March 23, the expectation is that Carney, our soon to be newly minted but never elected Prime Minister, will seek a mandate from the people.
This is what we need.
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While I fully support an outcome that would see Pierre Poilievre replace Carney as PM, we need a head of government that has an actual mandate from the people. Can you imagine Carney trying to negotiate with Donald Trump without a mandate from the electorate, selected to be PM by just 131,674 “registered Liberals?”
Trump was elected by more than 77 million Americans; he would laugh Carney out of the room.
Whoever goes to Washington next, needs to have the backing of the people.
Poilievre has a far better plan for unleashing Canada’s economy than Carney does, including using our natural resources as an economic opportunity rather than something to be ashamed of. And while the media narrative is that Carney has closed the gap and is about to sweep the electorate, that’s not actually the case.
The most recent polling from Leger for Postmedia shows that a Poilievre led Conservative Party would take 41% of the vote to 33% for a Carney-led Liberal Party and 12% for the NDP. On issues such as who can best deal with the cost of living and inflation, who is in touch with the realities of Canada today, who best understands the issues of “people like me,” Poilievre comes out on top.
On the issue of who can best deal with Donald Trump, Poilievre comes out on top with 32% backing the Conservative leader; Carney is viewed as the best by 28%. It’s a small lead, but it’s still a lead for Poilievre and it’s a lead on all the major issues.
The coming election is not a runaway win for the Conservatives, it’s going to be a fight. It is a fight that we need now though, so that we can have a functional government with a clear mandate.