Game Day 64: Oilers vs Sabres
This in from Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer, Edmonton’s new line-up for today’s game against the Buffalo Sabres, with news that Jeff Skinner is back in the line-up and Mattias Janmark bumped up to play center on the fourth line.
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
J. Skinner-Janmark-Brown
Jones-Henrique-Perry
Kapanen
Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Kulak-Emberson
S. Skinner
Pickard
My take
1. Edmonton’s fanbase is on fire with debate about the relative merits of forwards Jeff Skinner and Mattias Janmark. A large and loud faction is calling out Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch for mishandling the two players, essentially playing Skinner too little and Janmark too much.
For today’s game, both Janmark and Skinner have been given a bit of a bump, Janmark getting a turn as the third line centre, with Skinner and Connor Brown on his wings. Skinner has been promoted out of the pressbox, where he’s found frequent home in recent weeks.
2. Is Knoblauch getting it wrong? He might be, but I can also see method to what makes others so mad.
Let’s start with Janmark, 32, and now in his third season with the Oilers. In his first year, he had 10 goals in 62 games. Last year he had four goals in 71 games, but also four goals in 25 playoff games. This year he’s got two goals in 62 games. That’s wretched goal-scoring production for the forward and yet Edmonton coaches stick with him.
3. In the 2024 playoffs, of course, Janmark was a beast, a key player on Edmonton’s out-of-this-world penalty kill and a physical force, hitting opponents hard and often. This earned him a new three-year contract. No doubt Knoblauch hopes Janmark will regain his 2024 playoff from in the 2025 playoffs, hence the long leash and extra patience for the player, correct?
4. The problem with Janmark is he’s a defensive specialist who hasn’t been playing strong defence at even strenth for the past three months. He’s making a much higher rate of mistakes on Grade A shots at even strength.
He’s essentially gone from making one mistake on a Grade A shot every second game, to making one every single game. In other words, he started out with an exceptionally low rate, but he’s now got a high rate, about the same as other Oilers wingers who are struggling on defence, players like Skinner, who has had a high rate of such mistakes all season long.
5. Janmark is in the line-up because he’s a key member of the Oil’s penalty kill, which has been inconsistent this year after playing so brilliantly in the 2024 playoffs. Skinner is no penalty killer, so he’s competing for a one of the few roles reserved for pure offensive players. In limited minutes, Skinner has 19 even strength points, not bad at all when you consider a more regular Top 6 winger like Zach Hyman has 26, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has 22, Vasily Podkolzin and Connor Brown, 21, and Corey Perry also 19.
6. Perry contributes to the highest rate of Grade A shots at even strength as any of the Oilers bubble wingers (Perry, Skinner, Brown, Kapanen and Janmark). All these bubble players are in danger of coming out of the line-up, especially with big and aggressive newcomer Max Jones making a mark and Trent Frederic and Evander Kane likely on the way back sooner or later. Two or three of these bubble wingers could find themselves in the pressbox in the playoffs.
7. Janmark and Brown have an edge because they are trusted penalty killers. I could see Skinner and Kapanen on the outside regularly. Skinner is not a penalty killer and Skinner’s defensive play at even strength has been weak all year.
It will greatly annoy many fans but Janmark’s defensive reputation will keep him in the line-up. Of course, if Janmark’s defensive play at even strength continues to slide, the argument for playing him will be harder to make.
He’d best crank it up soon or he’ll deservedly be spending more games himself in the pressbox.
8. As for why Skinner and Janmark are now getting a boost, Skinner does add offfence and Buffalo is his old NHL hometown. It’s also good to keep him game-ready with a few games here and there.
As for Janmark at centre, if he can show he can perform in that position as a checker, he might be the answer for the Oilers as the fourth line centre in the playoffs. He’s got to get reps at centre for Oilers coaches to know if they can trust him in that role.
At the Cult of Hockey
‘Fantastic’: Hockey world’s rave review of new Edmonton Oiler. But can he turn playoff dial?
Staples on politics
All the reasons why we can’t trust Mark Carney to put Canada first
