The Met Office is forecasting Brits could face a late cold snap this month thanks to a phenomeon that often brings snow. Meteorologists have been saying a sudden stratospheric warming event could take place over the next fortnight – shattering hopes that warmer weather is finally banishing winter.
Such a move could lead potentially to a quick decline of the polar vortex – a subject rarely discussed except when the weather gets bad. And now the Met Office has issued a statement on the likelihood of it affecting the UK.
The polar vortex is a large area of cold air around the Earth’s poles. The phenomenon causes jet stream weakening and can usher in Arctic air towards the south.
Such occurrences can be linked with extreme snowfall, blizzards, and plummeting temperatures – and there are reports that one could be on the way. In their ‘ Weather Tracker’, The Guardian reported: “The next stratospheric event looks stronger than the previous one, and will probably weaken the jet stream pattern. This may allow a release of cold air from the polar regions to move southwards into North America or Eurasia, in turn increasing the risk of significant snow for some regions.”
In comments issued this evening, the Met Office said: “The stratosphere polar vortex is now weakening rapidly.”
They added: “Over the last few days, the forecasts have become very confident and we are almost certain there will be a sudden stratospheric warming in mid-March. This is when the mid stratospheric wind is predicted to reverse from westerly to easterly.”
A similar event in mid-February led to extended spells of severe cold and heavy snow, particularly in eastern and northern Scotland. The impact was even more dramatic in the USA and Canada, where extensive disruption ensued due to freezing conditions, reports the Scottish Daily Express.
The possible cold snap could be even more potent – and could reportedly affect any location within the northern hemisphere. Severe Weather Europe’s website cautioned: “This upcoming event in the stratosphere looks stronger than the first one and is forecast to be the final collapse of the polar vortex for this season.”
Bloomberg has reported: “Europe faces a cold snap this month as forecasters brace for an unusual weather event originating in the Arctic, threatening to bolster heating demand just as spring gets under way.”
The report, which cites data from Weather Services International, continues: “A similar weather pattern fueled the ‘Beast from the East’ that plunged the UK and Ireland into a prolonged and deadly cold spell in 2018, though March’s conditions aren’t forecast to be near as severe. Still, a cold start to spring could increase gas demand and put pressure on inventories that remain lower than usual for the time of year.”
Meteorologist Andrew Pedrini from Atmospheric G2 commented: “The stratosphere continues to be a big topic of conversation as the winter ends.”
What does the Met Office say about the polar vortex collapse risk?
The new comments from the Met Office have been reported by GB News at around 5.30pm on Tuesday, March 5. The GB News website says a Met Office spokesman said “about 70 per cent of sudden stratospheric warming events lead to cold conditions with easterly winds across northern Europe and the UK.”
What is a sudden stratospheric warming?
The Met Office has a section on this very question for general use when the issue arises. Their site states : “In recent years some extreme cold, winter snow events have all been connected to the surface effects of sudden stratospheric warmings, such as those in 2009-10, 2013, and ‘the beast from the east’ in 2018. You may be asking why it is called a warming then, if it lead to cold conditions?
“The term sudden stratospheric warming refers to what is observed in the stratosphere:- a rapid warming (up to about 50 °C in just a couple of days), between 10 km and 50 km above the earth’s surface. This is so high up that we don’t feel the ‘warming’ ourselves. However, usually a few weeks later, we can start to see knock-on effects on the jet stream, which in turn effects our weather lower down (in the troposphere).
“However, the stratospheric sudden warming doesn’t happen every year, and it doesn’t always affect our weather when it does.”