First Reading is a daily newsletter keeping you posted on the travails of Canadian politicos, all curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.
TOP STORY
As U.S. President Donald Trump makes good on threats to issue blanket tariffs on Canada over the issue of border security, Canadian security officials are saying it’s still not clear what the White House wants them to do.
From the beginning, Trump has said that Canada would face blanket 25 per cent tariffs unless Ottawa became active at “halting illegal immigration” and “stopping poisonous fentanyl” from entering the United States.
With both issues either severely curbed or in steep decline, both the RCMP and the Canada Border Services Agency have expressed confusion in recent days with continued U.S. demands.
The United States’ own data shows that flows of both illegal drugs and illegal migrants have dropped significantly in the weeks since Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection tallied up a monthly average of 17,000 “encounters” at the Canadian border. The term refers to people both turned away at a port of entry, or arrested while attempting to illegally enter the U.S.
In January, encounters from Canada dropped to just 5,144, a decrease of about 70 per cent.
On the issue of fentanyl, both U.S. and Canadian statistics have never shown Canada as a massive exporter of the drug. As Aaron McCrorie, vice president of intelligence and enforcement for the CBSA, told a House of Commons committee in December. “I will say that Canada is not a significant source of fentanyl in the United States. The vast majority of the fentanyl in the United States, as we understand it, is coming from Mexico.”
One widely circulated statistic is that of 21,900 pounds of fentanyl seized by U.S. Customs and Border Protection in 2024, 43 pounds came by way of the Canadian land border.
So far this year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has seized 5,600 pounds of fentanyl, of which just 10 came from Canada.
Despite this, U.S. officials have continued to treat Canada and Mexico as a block in terms of border security. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNN this week that both Canada and Mexico have “done a good job on the border, but they haven’t done enough on fentanyl.”
In a CTV interview on Friday, RCMP Commissioner Michael Duheme said police have been in the midst of a “fentanyl sprint” since Dec. 8, right around the time Trump first made his tariff threats against Canada.
According to the RCMP, in the six weeks following Dec. 8, the results of the sprint have been 45 kg of fentanyl seized and 524 arrests.
But it’s not clear whether any of the fentanyl seized by Canadian law enforcement during the sprint was destined for U.S markets.
“There’s not a lot of intel to indicate that the substance is actually going down south,” said Duheme.
The RCMP head otherwise avoided getting into specifics of how much Canadian fentanyl was entering the U.S., saying “there’s traffic going north to south and south to north and we don’t want that” and “even small amounts that are going south is too much; one single dose can kill someone.”
Meanwhile, amid Canada’s step-up in border security, there have been multiple high-profile busts of drugs going the other direction. Last week, the CBSA announced that they’d stopped separate trucks at the Coutts, Alta. border crossing carrying a combined 186 kilograms of methamphetamine and 43 kilograms of cocaine.
In Sunday comments published by The Globe and Mail, CBSA head Erin O’Gorman said she did not know what specific additional border measures might prompt the U.S. to back off on tariff threats.
“We are just unrelentingly talking about what we’re doing, how we’re collaborating with them, how we can further collaborate,” she said.
Last week, O’Gorman was among a delegation to Washington, D.C., that included both Duheme and Public Safety Minister David McGuinty.
In a sidewalk press scrum conducted in the U.S. capital on Thursday, McGuinty echoed O’Gorman in saying that he wasn’t sure what might eventually cause the U.S. administration to change their minds on the border.
“We can control what we can control, and what we can control is making progress on the border,” he said.
On Monday, Trump said that whatever Canada did, tariffs would be coming regardless.
“The tariffs, you know, there are all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said at a White House press conference. “No room left for Mexico or for Canada.”
IN OTHER NEWS
Liberal leadership frontrunner Mark Carney has now racked up multiple instances of claims about himself that have turned out to be verifiably untrue. The National Post’s Rahim Mohamed compiled the big ones thus far. Here’s a few:
- Carney said “it was my privilege to work with Paul Martin when he balanced the books.” Except Carney didn’t work for the Department of Finance until 2004 – about a decade after Martin’s famed slaying of the Canadian debt crisis.
- At his campaign launch, Carney said “I have helped manage multiple crises and saved two economies.” The two economies he’s referring to are likely Canada and the U.K., whose respective central banks he headed. Although Carney was Bank of Canada governor during Ottawa’s successful navigation of the Great Recession, there’s been widespread criticism about how much of that was his doing. And the boast is even thinner in the case of the U.K.; British productivity and living standards both fared quite poorly while Carney was Governor of the Bank of England.
- Carney said he had “no connection” with a decision by his former company, Brookfield Asset Management, to move from Toronto to New York City late last year. This was contradicted by a December letter to shareholders in which Carney advocated for the move.
And since we’re on the subject, Carney recently claimed at an event in Barrie, Ont., that Canada was the “biggest supplier of semiconductors” to the United States. “We supply almost all their semiconductors,” he said. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, this isn’t even close to correct. Of the semiconductor devices imported by the U.S. in 2023, 0.79 per cent came from Canada. This could be brushed off as a conventional gaffe attributable to the stress of campaigning, but Carney’s whole schtick is that he’s the economy guy.
Get all of these insights and more into your inbox by signing up for the First Reading newsletter here.