Ask 10 people their prediction for Saturday night’s IBF welterweight showdown at a sold-out SSE Arena in Belfast between Lewis Crocker and Paddy Donovan and you will likely get an even split (live on DAZN, approx 10pm).
The bookmakers aren’t sure either as they have it a dead heat, a sign that the hype is real and this meeting between two undefeated fighters, right in their prime, has all the ingredients to be a classic.
Pride may be the theme of the evening, but there is so much more at stake as the winner of this Belfast v Limerick clash will go on to challenge for the IBF title, but that is for another day as both know they face their toughest assignment to date.
Crocker comes into this fight with 20 wins in as many contests — 11 inside the distance — and is regarded as the puncher of the two. However, Limerick’s Donovan has stopped 11 of his 14 victims — evidence that he is no slouch in this department.
By the same token, it’s Donovan who is regarded as the slick boxer with all of the skills in his locker, so surely he has the edge in this department? Well, when Crocker’s class as an amateur is considered, then downplay his skill-set at your peril.
So what will decide this? Perhaps it comes down to engine, temperament, ability to stand up to the power of the other and dealing with the pressure cooker environment. All week, we have searched for some clues but they have remained poker faced, exuding a steely confidence.
When it comes to the pressure of these situations, Crocker does have an advantage as he dealt with a highly-charged ‘Battle of Belfast’ and in his last outing, despite under-performing, won on the road against Conah Walker.
“Paddy is a great boxer — there’s no denying that,” Crocker accepts.
“I think my experience is going to be key here. When you look at the stats of how many rounds I’ve done and how many rounds he’s done, it’s a big difference. This is a real jump up and it’s a real jump up on the stage as well.
“But I don’t know if this fight would have been made if my last fight hadn’t been like it was and maybe he took a bit of confidence from it. I’m going to be a different guy in this fight.”
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Donovan does indeed seem to be taking encouragement from Crocker’s last outing as his own saw him dismantle Lewis Ritson — albeit a far from prime version of the Geordie — so the Limerick man is making a significant step up this week.
But his performances so far have proven he is beyond the Ritsons of this world and taking this step up is the natural move.
He is clever and adept at creating angles of attack, but is yet to be put under constant pressure from a big puncher who will likely seek to set a high pace and make it uncomfortable in an effort to wear him down.
Donovan is yet to go beyond nine rounds and with this eliminator scheduled for 12, his engine is likely to be tested to the limit.
But he also possesses the power to deter Crocker’s advances with a strong body attack in particular, which could be his key to victory.
“There will be times when Crocker is hurt in the fight,” he predicts.
“We know that Lewis is very wild. He’s very dangerous, but you can get fighters like that.
“If I did that and I acted the same way in the ring that Lewis does, I’d punch the exact same way, but I’m more of a technician.
“I’ve got more skill, I’m well more disciplined, I stick to my game plan and I implement it right down to the tee so that’s what we’re going to have to do. Great game plan and do what the boss, Andy Lee, says and just expose Lewis Crocker on the night.”
It could be cagey early as they will respect the other’s power, knowing one slip could spell curtains. But this is a fight that will come to life and they will both have to bite down at times, their grit and sheer will to win tested like never before.
Plan B may be the winning of this fight as it could well see-saw, but there is a sense we will have a conclusive winner.
Just who that will be will only be answered by around 11pm.