Reform UK has scored a massive victory overnight in an election in Liz Truss’s old seat of South West Norfolk.
Voters in Bedingfield (Breckland) went to the polls for a council by-election, an important bell-weather event that indicates Reform’s potency ahead of local elections in May.
Nigel Farage’s party romped to victory with 54.3 per cent of the vote, well out ahead of unseated Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.
It comes as a fresh headache for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch who is trying to rebuild her party after July’s electoral drubbing is facing a huge challenge from Farage in the battle for right wing support.
The win for Reform confirms the ‘disruptor’ party is capable of unseating Conservatives in once safe Tory heartlands.
Bedingfield’s wider constituency of South West Norfolk had elected a Conservative MP at every election since 1964 (including Liz Truss since 2010).
Labour’s Terry Jermy narrowly took the seat in 2024 by 640 votes, but Jermy is now projected to lose his seat to Reform.
The result indicates what could be about to happen on a much larger scale in May when thousands of council seats are up for grabs.
The last major round of local elections was in 2021 when Boris Johnson was enjoying peak popularity, meaning the Tories will be defending hundreds of seats against a resurgent Reform.
South West Norfolk projectionElectionMapsUKLabour came third in Bedingfield as their vote share fell 14.1 per cent. Starmer’s party also suffered a loss in Vincent Square (Westminster) council by-election last night.
The Conservatives won the seat with 45.4 per cent vote share (+0.5 per cent) as Labour share fell 10.6 per cent to 32.5 per cent. Reform came third with 9.6 per cent.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats defended Eamont & Shap (Westmorland & Furness), cruising to victory with 67.2 per cent, well ahead of the Tories’ 20.5 per cent.
And the success may not be over yet for Reform as results for Rushmere St Andrews (East Suffolk) and Woodbridge (East Suffolk) are yet to come in.
It comes after Labour has been repeatedly hammered at the ballot box since the July General Election.
In 200 council elections, Starmer’s party have suffered a net loss of 34 seats, mostly to the Tories and Reform as the country swings right.
Keir Starmer has been hammered at the ballot box since July General Election
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Badenoch’s Conservatives, despite poor polling nationally, have won a net gain of 25 councillors, impressive given the party was leaderless for much of the period.
Reform meanwhile has gained 12 councillors, something commentators have said is a poor return given their dominant polling and extensive media attention.
Others argue the party has only just professionalised and is competing with established parties who have large ranks of people wanting to stand.
It comes after a bombshell poll by Electoral Calculus put Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 25.8 per cent nationally, with Labour behind on 24.7 per cent and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party in third on 21.9 per cent.
The new opinion poll would place Reform UK on 192 seats, with Labour on 178 seats down from 404, with the Conservative party trailing on 142 seats and no longer the official opposition.
Speaking exclusively to GB News, CEO of Electoral Calculous Martin Baxter said: “Reform UK have gained steadily in opinion polls month by month as the public loses faith in the two traditional parties.”
Baxter explained: “With a political thunderbolt, Reform UK are now the most popular party in British politics, and Nigel Farage would be on course to be the next Prime Minister, if there were an election tomorrow.”
“This is a pivotal moment, with giant cracks showing in the existing two-party system.
“Whether Reform can keep up their momentum and displace one of the other big parties in the longer term remains to be seen.”
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Electoral Calculus projection
Electoral Calculus
Responding to the poll, a Reform UK spokesman said: “This polling confirms what we all know, Reform has all the momentum in British politics.
“The British people are ready for real change after decades of deception and failure by the Tories and Labour.
“This is only just the start, we intend to win the next general election.”
The next General Election is due in 2029. Local elections are due in May, though Labour has allowed nine councils to postpone as they look to reorganise local government.