Reform UK will, for the first time, win both the most votes and the most seats if a general election were to be held tomorrow, a new opinion poll has shown.
In a poll by Electoral Calculus, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has polled at 25.8 per cent, with Labour behind on 24.7 per cent and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party in third on 21.9 per cent.
The new opinion poll would place Reform UK on 192 seats, with Labour on 178 seats down from 404, with the Conservative party trailing on 142 seats and no longer the official opposition.
Responding to the poll, a Reform UK spokesman said: “This polling confirms what we all know, Reform has all the momentum in British politics.
“The British people are ready for real change after decades of deception and failure by the Tories and Labour.
“This is only just the start, we intend to win the next general election.”
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has placed first among respondents at 25.8 per cent
PA
The impact of the new poll could see Nigel Farage sweep into No10 as Britain’s next Prime Minister, with Kemi Badenoch as Deputy Prime Minister if a coalition were to be formed, or Reform could govern as a minority administration.
The data shows there is a 7 per cent chance of Reform UK forming a majority Government in 2029.
Speaking exclusively to GB News, CEO of Electoral Calculous Martin Baxter said: “Reform UK have gained steadily in opinion polls month by month as the public loses faith in the two traditional parties.”
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Electoral Calculus poll results/parliamentary seat predictions
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A seat projection map by Electoral Calculus would place Reform UK on 192 seats
GB News/Electoral Calculus
Baxter explained: “With a political thunderbolt, Reform UK are now the most popular party in British politics, and Nigel Farage would be on course to be the next Prime Minister, if there were an election tomorrow.”
“This is a pivotal moment, with giant cracks showing in the existing two-party system.
“Whether Reform can keep up their momentum and displace one of the other big parties in the longer term remains to be seen.”
The Electoral Calculus poll is the latest showing a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s party, with the latest YouGov poll also showing Reform to be top of the polling charts.
Electoral Calculus CEO Martin Baxter said the results would place Farage ‘on course to be the next Prime Minister’
PA
The numbers will make for difficult reading for Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch, whose party now trails Reform by almost 4 per cent and would put them 50 seats behind Britain’s fastest growing party.
Oddschecker, Britain’s biggest betting odds aggregating web page, shows betting firms are shortening the odds of Reform UK having the most seats and becoming Britain’s largest party.
The latest odds for Reform to have the most seats stands at 9/4, with a wager of £10.00 yielding a return of £32.50p.
The betting exchange also shows that UK bookmakers are strongly backing Nigel Farage to become Britain’s next Prime Minister, with odds as short as 9/4 available for Farage, with Kemi Badenoch trailing in second with odds of 9/2.
A crunch moment could come for the Leader of the Opposition in May’s local elections, when thousands of council seats go up for grabs.
With critics arguing Badenoch is failing to cut through at Prime Minister’s questions, and with poll numbers continuing to plummet, critics now question how long she will remain in post.
GB News has approached the Government for comment.