The Conservatives first recorded a 20-point lead in public opinion last June and pundits concluded that the Liberals coming back from such a deficit was as likely as growing flowers in the desert.
Yet, a mere eight months later we have the first poll to suggest the governing party, which is not even under new management yet, has overhauled Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, according to Ipsos findings released Tuesday.
The Lazarus-like revival suggests the Liberals have gained 10 points of support since Ipsos’s last poll in January. For a brief moment before Justin Trudeau resigned, it looked as if they were on track to lose official party status after the next election; now it’s the NDP that is facing that prospect.
It is an unprecedented shift in public opinion and the pressing question is: What are Poilievre’s Conservatives going to do about it to shift the momentum back?
The answer, according to senior Conservatives, is… not much.
The logic is that Poilievre still holds two aces: namely, fatigue with the Liberal party after nearly 10 years in power; and the sense among roughly eight in 10 Canadians that it is time for a change of government.
Senior sources in the Conservative party say a tightening of the polls should come as no surprise, given Trudeau’s deep unpopularity and the prospect that his imminent departure would see a revival of Liberal fortunes.
This news might even benefit Conservatives who have become too complacent about winning and have been mentally measuring the drapes for their ministerial offices, they suggest.
“We haven’t earned the trust of Canadians yet,” one party source said.
He said he is confident Poilievre will “maul” Mark Carney in a leaders’ debate, particularly since the Conservatives still hold a lead in public opinion on the key cost-of-living issue.
The risk for the Conservatives is that Carney, who is odds-on favourite to be named Liberal leader on March 9, can position himself as an agent of change.
Plenty of Canadians are prepared to believe that the new boss is the same as the old boss
In the English-language leaders’ debate on Tuesday, Carney criticized the Trudeau government for relying on a surge in immigration and government spending that grew at nine per cent a year to drive the economy. “Our economy was weak before we got to the point of these threats (of tariffs from Donald Trump). That’s why we need big changes,” he said.
The record of trusted lieutenants distancing themselves from long-time leaders is not stellar: think Gordon Brown and Tony Blair in the U.K. or Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien in Canada.
But even though he was an adviser to the Trudeau government, Carney can plausibly disavow, and even impugn, its record in office.
The U.S. president’s intimidation is now the most pressing issue for most Canadian voters and Carney is not only presenting himself as best-positioned to deal with it but is portraying Poilievre as being unfit for the purpose.
He said the Conservative leader “worships” Trump and is “the wrong guy at the worst time.”
During the debate, Carney blasted Poilievre’s decision to refuse security clearance as “the kind of irresponsibility, at a time when our country is under threat, that we cannot afford.”
As always in these columns, I am obliged to acknowledge a friendship with Carney going back years. Long before he entered politics, I recall him saying that he was criticized for being “Michael Ignatieff with a calculator — someone who used too many ten-dollar words.”
But, he said, the case could be made that we live in a ten-dollar world and simplistic slogans are not going to make Canada better off.
Even Conservative MPs whisper that Carney looks like the adult in the room.
With uncanny timing, he has appeared on the political scene at the moment when economic expertise and experience in managing international crises are at a premium.
Poilievre’s challenge is to explode this apparently providential turn of events.
The Conservatives will attempt to do that with a $10-million ad blitz that tries to shackle Carney to Trudeau and the “job-killing carbon tax.” Plenty of Canadians are prepared to believe that the new boss is the same as the old boss, particularly when it comes to carbon pricing.
The Conservatives also appear to have been handed a gift in the form of a letter Carney wrote as chair of Brookfield Asset Management, which they say proves the Liberal leadership candidate supported moving the investment firm’s headquarters to New York from Toronto.
Carney says the final decision was made after he quit the company for politics in mid-January. Either way, it is the kind of headline he could do without, as the Conservatives try to brand him as “Sneaky Mark Carney.” Having an illustrious resumé also has its downside.
It is pointless trying to predict what is going to happen next. Trump seemed to suggest Wednesday that 25-per-cent tariffs will now come into force on April 2. “They will make it impossible for Canada to sell cars… if we don’t support them, they don’t exist as a country,” he said in a rambling press conference.
Yet, there are more and more signs of discomfort with his position regarding Canada. Politico reported on a U.S. poll by Public First that said only 28 per cent of Americans back tariffs on Canada, versus 43 per cent who are opposed.
A new study by Anderson Economic Group estimates a 25-per-cent tariff would increase the cost of a full-size SUV by US$9,000 and a pick-up truck by US$8,000. Ford’s CEO Jim Farley said tariffs would “blow a hole” in the U.S. auto industry.
It is possible that the immediate existential threat blows over and the concerns of voters return to more prosaic issues where the Conservatives have the edge.
But if an election were held tomorrow, as the opinion poll question puts it, we would likely have a tight race.
Polling company Angus Reid Institute had the Conservatives nearly 30 points ahead of the third-place Liberals under Trudeau in the week before Christmas.
An Angus Reid poll last week had them up just three points and suggested that far more Canadians view the Conservative leader unfavourably than view him favourably. It showed that Carney, who only announced his candidacy a month ago, is now the most popular federal politician in the country.
Life comes at you fast.
National Post
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