Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives maintain a commanding lead over the Ontario Liberals, according to a new poll taken days before the provincial election.
The Postmedia-Leger poll found that 47 per cent of Ontarians intend to vote PC on Thursday, compared to 28 per cent who plan to vote Liberal, 17 per cent who plan to vote NDP and six per cent who intend to vote Green.
When Ford called the election in January, there was some speculation that the snap election call — roughly a year-and-a-half before the fixed election date — would backfire and be seen as political opportunism while Ontario, and Canada, are facing a growing trade crisis from south of the border.
However, that doesn’t seem to have happened.
“Our tracking has been pretty consistent over week-to-week of the campaign. (Ford) has been 45 per cent, at the call, and has kind of held on to that,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president, central Canada, for Leger.
There has been some movement between the second and third place parties.
“I’d say that going in, it was probably an open question. Coming out of the campaign, (Liberal Leader) Bonnie Crombie has put some distance between Marit Stiles and the NDP,” said Enns. “I think the interesting question will be on election night: Can she convert that gap between the Liberal party and the NDP, can she convert that into seats?”
Only in the Hamilton/Niagara region do the PCs come close to trailing another party. There, Stiles’s NDP and Ford’s PCs are tied at 36 per cent.
The Progressive Conservatives have the most support in the Greater Toronto Area, with 58 per cent support. In Metro Toronto, the PCs have a three point lead: 40 per cent support among prospective voters compared to 37 per cent support for Crombie’s Liberal party.
The PCs hold high levels of support across all demographics in Ontario. Fifty-one per cent of Ontario men plan to vote PC, compared to 42 per cent of women. Support for Ford’s party is highest among the 35 to 54 demographic (50 per cent).
“In what’s been a pretty low-key campaign where voter turnout might become a bit of an issue, those are the folks that are probably going to show up and vote,” said Enns.
The Ontario Liberals are most popular, with 33 per cent support, among those aged 55 and older, although still far less popular than the PCs (46 per cent). The Ontario NDP has 23 per cent support among those aged 18 to 34.
Given that, 60 per cent of Ontarians expect Ford will return to power. He has governed since 2018, when his PCs crushed the incumbent Liberals under former premier Kathleen Wynne.
Just 25 per cent of Ontarians bothered to watch the televised leaders’ debate, held last Monday, although among those who did, 17 per cent said Ford won. Just eight per cent said Crombie won and five per cent said Stiles performed the best.
When it comes to making a decision on how to vote, 38 per cent of Ontarians said they are voting on the basis of a party’s platform, while 32 per cent said the government’s record will influence their vote. Twenty-six per cent said the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on the Canadian economy has influenced how they will vote — the potential trade war has had a major impact on the campaign, frequently registering among the top concerns of Ontario voters. Ford has not just been campaigning at home, but visiting the U.S. in his official capacity as premier throughout the duration of the campaign.
“Toward the end of the year when the Trump tariff issue started to pop up, you saw a bit of a spike in the premier’s approval ratings,” said Enns. “It honestly just hasn’t wavered much.”
The polling was done via an online survey of 1,005 Ontarians between Feb. 21 and Feb. 23, 2025. The results have been weighted to ensure a representative sample of the Ontario population. A probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20.