The Prime Minister is to hold a press conference in Downing Street this evening. Sir Keir Starmer will speak at 5pm after pledging to raise defence spending from its current 2.3% share of the economy to 2.5% by 2027.
The plan amounts to “the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War”, the Prime Minister has said. Yet he warned it relies on slashing development assistance aid.
The PM will speak amid talks between USA and Russia over the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. Donald Trump has vowed to end the war, but there is widespread concern among allies about Ukraine’s exclusion from talks.
Trump has also falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the war. Starmer’s “ambition” is for defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP after 2029, he told the Commons today.
The Prime Minister said: “I’ve long argued that in the face of ongoing generational challenges, all European allies must step up and do more for our own defence, so subject to economic and fiscal conditions, and aligned with our strategic and operational needs, we will also set a clear ambition for defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP in the next parliament.
“I want to be very clear, the nature of warfare has changed significantly. That is clear from the battlefield in Ukraine, and so we must modernise and reform our capabilities as we invest.
“I equally want to be very clear that like any other investment we make, we must seek value for money and that’s why we’re putting in place a new defence, reform and efficiency plan, jointly led by my right honourable friends the Chancellor (Rachel Reeves) and the Defence Secretary (John Healey).
“This investment means that the UK will strengthen its position as a leader in Nato and in the collective defence of our continent, and we should welcome that role. It is good for our national security. It is also good for the defining mission of this Government – to restore growth to our economy.”
Kemi Badenoch said the Conservative Party “stands resolutely” with the people of Ukraine and highlighted the UK’s support before adding: “It is also true that overall the West has not done enough to support Ukraine.” The press conference at Downing Street comes after a senior Cabinet minister said there is “no easy way” to find the funding to boost defence after Sir Keir Starmer announced cuts to aid spending.
“There’ll be people who say, You shouldn’t fund it that way. They then, of course, have to answer, ‘Well, how should it be funded?’ There is no easy way to do this,” Pat McFadden told the BBC’s World at One programme.
He added: “People will say, you should have done this through more tax, or you should have done this through more borrowing, or you should have done this through some undefined way that they don’t really want to define, but you shouldn’t have done it the way that you’re doing it.
“I expect all those arguments. And look, this isn’t easy, because I do understand the connection between hard power and soft power. That connection is true, we will still be spending about £9 billion a year after this on development overseas from that budget.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has suggested the increase in defence spending would amount to around £6 billion, rather than the £13.4 billion claimed by the Prime Minister. IFS associate director Ben Zaranko said: “If defence spending needs to go higher than 2.5% of GDP, cuts to aid won’t be enough.
“Getting towards 3% of GDP will eventually mean more tough choices and sacrifices elsewhere – whether higher taxes, or cuts to other bits of government. The world has changed, and one question is whether the Government’s pre-existing promises on tax and spend might need to change as well.
“As a minor note to what is a major announcement, the Prime Minister followed in the steps of the last government by announcing a misleadingly large figure for the ‘extra’ defence spending this announcement entails. An extra 0.2% of GDP is around £6 billion, and this is the size of the cut to the aid budget. Yet he trumpeted a £13 billion increase in defence spending.
“It’s hard to be certain without more detail from the Treasury, but this figure only seems to make sense if one thinks the defence budget would otherwise have been frozen in cash terms.”