“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.”
This was the verdict the backbench Conservative MP for Epping, Winston Churchill, delivered to his own prime minister, Neville Chamberlain, after Chamberlain’s return from meetings with German Chancellor Adolf Hitler in Munich, in September 1938.
The Munich Agreement allowed Nazi Germany to annex Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland in return for Hitler’s promise that he would go no further. Six months later, the Nazis took all of Czechoslovakia. Then, with the connivance of Joseph Stalin’s Russia, Germany invaded Poland on Sept. 1, 1939. Two days later, Britain was at war.
Within days, Canada and Britain’s other far-flung former colonies signed up for the fight. On May 10, 1940, the Nazis invaded France, Belgium and Holland, and Churchill finally became prime minister. It wasn’t until December 1941 that the Americans put their backs into it.
Another meeting took place this week in Munich. This time around it’s the Americans’ turn to explain why they have chosen dishonour, and it comes down to this: Americans no longer consider themselves beholden to their Second World War allies in maintaining the “rules-based international order” that has assured the western world’s peace and prosperity for the past 80 years.
But the United States’ choice is far more squalid than the decision that faced Chamberlain, who had hoped, to be fair, to buy time. It’s not as though Chamberlain had joined the other side, which is the decision U.S. President Donald Trump has given every impression of having made.
In Munich on Friday, the dumbfounded Europeans had to sit there and be instructed by U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance that they should no longer depend on American military prowess and American security guarantees. It’s fitting that Vance was chosen to deliver the message. Three years ago, he was perfectly candid about his own standpoint: “I don’t really care what happens in Ukraine one way or the other.”
Even before his so-called peace negotiations have begun, Trump appears to have conceded to Stalin’s successor in Moscow just about everything Russia could have hoped for.
Insofar as it’s possible to discern the sketchy outlines of the concordat that Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a lengthy telephone conversation on Thursday — bits of it have been variously downplayed or walked back or amplified by unnamed White House officials — the Russians will be permitted to keep most, if not all, of the Ukrainian territory they’ve already conquered.
And Putin will face no consequences nor bear any costs for his scorched-earth war on Ukraine’s civilian population. The U.S. will no longer provide arms to Ukraine unless Kyiv pays for them up front, but the White House will consider backing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s bid to acquire the roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, held mostly in European banks, if Ukraine spends the money on American military hardware.
Overlooked in the news media’s efforts to figure out exactly what the American position is: the Biden administration was not the primary financial contributor to Ukraine’s resistance. Europe has contributed 132.3-billion euros (C$197 billion) over the past three years, and has pledged an open-ended commitment for as long as it takes. The American contribution amounted to 114.2-billion euros, and the majority of that money stayed in the U.S., as purchases from American arms manufacturers.
Trump reports that his conversation with Putin was pleasant, and they hope to meet soon, either in the U.S. or Russia. “We each talked about the strengths of our respective nations,” Trump said, “and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together.”
Trump added that Russia should be invited to rejoin the G7 countries, reconstituting the G8. “I’d love to have them back. I think it was a mistake to throw them out,” he said. “They should be sitting at the table. I think Putin would love to be back.”
Russia was ejected in 2014 after Putin invaded and seized Crimea, where so many Russian apparatchiks maintain their holiday palaces.
Other elements of Putin-Trump concordat: Trump concurs with Putin that Ukrainians should never have been allowed to imagine that their country would be permitted membership in NATO. The war was Ukraine’s fault, and the fault of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, who offended Russia’s anti-NATO “red line” sensibilities about Ukraine, which Russia insists is not now, and never was, a proper country.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians wait in hope and agony to learn just how many more concessions Trump will offer the Russian terror state in order to claim the mantle of ending the war, which has been levelling Ukrainian cities for almost three full years now. At least 57,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed, and over 250,000 have been injured.
The latest atrocity: In the early hours of Friday morning, a Russian drone fitted with a high-explosive warhead smashed into the mothballed Chernobyl nuclear power plant, damaging the reactor’s protective shelter. Chernobyl’s Soviet-era meltdown and fire was the worst nuclear accident in history. The protective seals around the plant were intended to last for generations. So far, Ukrainian authorities say, there’s no evidence of heightened levels of radioactivity around the site.
Trump has been clear that he expects European troops to police American “security guarantees” in Ukraine, which Zelenskyy is expected to earn by presenting the Americans with what Trump has called “the equivalent of like $500 billion worth of rare earths.” Back in Munich, Vance offered no further clarity, although he did tell the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. would be prepared to hit Russia with sanctions and even send American soldiers to Ukraine if Moscow interferes with Zelenskyy’s arrangements with the United States.
In Munich, Vance was content to harangue the Europeans about the misguided fears they harbour about Russia and China. “What I worry about is the threat from within — the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America,” he said.
Vance’s remarks were widely understood to be in reference to immigration levels, echoing the rhetoric of the far-right, pro-Russian Alternative for Germany party, which Trump’s lieutenant, Elon Musk, has gone out of his way to boost.
Given Trump’s apparent determination to apply “economic force” on Canada to pressure the country to become the 51st state — a threat that could justify the invocation of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, requiring the 32-member alliance to convene for consultations — it’s not at all clear why the United States shouldn’t join Russia as a former G7 member. The G7 meets in Kananaskis, Alta., in June. There’s no good reason why Trump should be admitted to Canada to attend.
And given Trump’s unilateral, radical break from NATO unanimity by normalizing relations with Russia and beginning negotiations without Ukraine’s prior consent and full involvement, it’s an open question whether the United States should be invited to leave NATO.
Extricating themselves from an American government that is officially and formally hostile to the values and interests of NATO’s 32 member states would be a good thing for the alliance. Getting rid of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Moscow-backed government, which has deliberately and consistently distinguished itself as a serious encumbrance to European efforts in support of Ukraine, would be a bonus.
A clean break from the U.S. would further encourage NATO countries like Canada to invest in military capacity to at least two per cent of GDP, which is NATO’s agreed-upon minimum funding level. It would be the best bet against the pressing likelihood that Moscow, after getting away with its barbarism in Ukraine, will be encouraged to turn its guns on another neighbour.
It would also be a sign to the world that unlike Trump’s America, we have not chosen dishonour.
National Post