First Reading is a daily newsletter keeping you posted on the travails of Canadian politicos, all curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.
TOP STORY
Despite a series of Trudeau government pledges to dramatically curb immigration, a new report finds that Canadian population growth has largely stuck to its previously sky-high levels.
In October, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a suite of new controls on immigration designed to “pause population growth.” In a video at the time, Trudeau even expressed regret that he hadn’t curbed immigration sooner, saying, “We could have acted quicker and turned off the taps faster.”
Although admissions of international students have gone down dramatically in the interim four months, a new analysis by Desjardins finds that Canada is still accepting roughly the same amount of temporary foreign workers and permanent immigrants.
As such, the report said that Canadian population growth is about the same as it was before the October cuts, and isn’t likely to change without “more aggressive reductions.”
“We remain skeptical that the Government of Canada will be able to reach its (lower) target for admissions of newcomers,” it read.
Desjardins added that the Trudeau government often seems to make promises that it fails to fulfill, and that immigration reduction is a prime candidate for this.
“The federal government has struggled to meet some policy objectives in the past, and the prospect of meeting its new immigration targets is especially daunting given the administrative challenges associated with executing such a significant policy shift,” it read.
In the immediate wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trudeau government dialled up immigration intake to the highest yet seen in Canadian history.
Starting in 2021, the Canadian population surged by 3.5 million in just three years. That’s equivalent to adding the entire population of Metro Vancouver. At points, Canada ranked as one of the fastest growing countries on earth. In 2021, Canada took in almost exactly as many immigrants as the United States — despite being one tenth the size.
This influx of newcomers had the effect of keeping Canadian GDP relatively stable by sheer virtue of the fact that thousands of new consumers were being pumped into the economy every week.
Nevertheless, it came at a massive cost in affordability and overall social cohesion.
The former point has been openly acknowledged by Ottawa. As early as 2023, Trudeau was saying that surging rates of temporary migration have put “pressure on the whole system,” particularly in regards to rents and home prices.
The latter point has shown up in multiple surveys of Canadians calling for immigration to be slashed. A Leger poll from October found 65 per cent of respondents saying that too many immigrants were coming to Canada.
According to the Trudeau government’s revised immigration figures, Canada is supposed to be on course for the population to decrease in both 2025 and 2026 — the first time the country has experienced negative population growth since the Second World War. Across both years, Canada was supposed to see its population shrink by about one million.
Desjardins noted that the Trudeau government’s only significant success on curbing immigration was to bring down the intake of international students.
Last year, there were about 280,000 fewer students as compared to 2023. And overall, there were around 468,000 fewer new non-permanent residents when accounting for temporary migrants who have voluntarily returned home.
But the number of temporary foreign workers remained “essentially unchanged,” with a decrease of just 1,700 (one per cent) and Ottawa’s pledged cuts to permanent migration haven’t even kicked in yet.
In October, the Liberals pledged a 20 per cent cut to the intake of permanent residents — from a planned 500,000 down to 380,000.
Citing federal data, Desjardins wrote “we have yet to see declines in PR admissions,” concluding “the federal government is still far from achieving its population targets.”
The report also noted that asylum claims have spiked dramatically in recent months — a phenomenon driven in part by international students claiming to be refugees following the expiration of their visas. Canada took in 28,000 asylum claimants in 2024; a 20 per cent increase over the year before.
IN OTHER NEWS
One of the premier Canadian political questions of late is whether U.S. President Donald Trump is joking about his repeated threats to annex Canada and transform it into the 51st U.S. state. Here’s a quick review of the positions:
- Preston Manning, the populist godfather of the modern Conservative Party, thinks it’s a joke. He told True North that the proposition is obviously an “off the cuff” joke and blamed “central Canadian media” for taking it literally.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thinks it’s not a joke. He was captured on a hot mic this week saying that it’s all part of a plan to absorb Canada and exploit the country’s critical minerals.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says he’s treated it as even less of a joke than Trudeau. He told Postmedia’s Brian Lilley he’s “always taken it seriously” and condemned the Liberals for “treating it wrongly as a joke.”
- A Pollara poll published Tuesday found that just 10 per cent of Canadians thought it was a joke. Another 47 per cent said Trump wasn’t serious about it, but that the intention was intimidation rather than comic effect. About one third of respondents thought the threat was legitimate.
Get all of these insights and more into your inbox by signing up for the First Reading newsletter here.