Nearly half of Ontarians (47 per cent) would vote for Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party if the upcoming provincial election were held today, according to a new Postmedia-Leger poll.
The Ontario Liberal Party remains in a distant second, with 26 per cent, but Andrew Enns, the executive vice president of Central Canada for Leger, said the party is making inroads ahead of the debate on Feb. 17. The poll found that under Bonnie Crombie, the Liberals have gained some ground (three per cent) since last week, though he ascribes that more to gaining New Democratic Party (NDP) voters, as opposed to Ford supporters.
“On the surface, the Progressive Conservatives still look very strong,” the Leger executive told National Post.
“It looks like (the Liberals) have taken a bit of support from the NDP, there’s a bit of the consolidation of that left-of-centre — the alternative to the Progressive Conservatives — that, in the last election, the NDP got the upper hand. What we’re seeing here is … we may be seeing the Liberals getting a bit of the upper hand.”
The most important issues for Ontario voters are inflation/the rising cost of living (20 per cent) and housing affordability (12 per cent). Doctor shortages, taxes and worsening trade relations with the United States are tied for third place, with eight per cent each, followed by seven per cent for “reducing surgical wait times and adding health-care resources.”
When Ontarians were asked about the second-most important issue, inflation/the rising cost of living stayed at the top (15 per cent) and worries about a doctor shortage jumped to second (11 per cent), followed by housing affordability (10 per cent). Another medical-related worry, long surgical wait times, was tied for fourth (eight per cent) with concerns about taxes, followed by fears of a trade war and rising crime levels, which were tied with six per cent.
“(Crombie) has been quite focused on health care and the doctor shortages, in particular,” Enns said. “Is it enough, at this stage of the game, to say that she’s posing a real threat to Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives? No. Not at this point.”
Ford appears to have been bolstered in the polls by his handling of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canada. Since the election was called in late January, 19 per cent of people said their impression of the PC leader has improved, outpacing the number of people who said their impression improved of both Crombie (13 per cent) and NDP Leader Marit Stiles (11 per cent).
Leger found nearly two-thirds of Ontarians (59 per cent) are happy with Ford’s handling of the bilateral row as premier, with clear majorities among Progressive Conservative (79 per cent), Liberal (56 per cent) and NDP (59 per cent) supporters. Less than a quarter (23 per cent) somewhat or strongly disapprove of Ford’s response to Trump.
“I think the story on that is probably … it is still good for Premier Ford,” Enns said.
“The Trump news, and what he’s injecting into the campaign, only really the premier can respond to,” he added. “Bonnie Crombie can talk about ‘jobs in Ontario and the Ontario economy are important, and we have to fight Donald Trump’; Premier Ford is saying the same thing, but he’s the premier. He’s down in Washington, so it’s a bit more tangible and, I think, you see that reflected in a continued approval of how he is handling Trump and the U.S. trade challenges.”
Nearly half of Ontarians (47 per cent) also agreed with Ford’s decision to call an early election to get a mandate to deal with Trump, while 40 per cent disagreed with this reasoning.
A third of Ontarians believe it’s time for the Liberals or NDP to return to office, while slightly over a quarter (28 per cent) would happily vote in Ford again. Just under a fifth (19 per cent) are unhappy with Ford but see him as the best option.
The Ontario election is scheduled for Feb. 27.
Leger’s online poll for Postmedia surveyed 1,004 Ontario residents aged 18 or older between Feb. 7 and 9. A probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20.