OTTAWA • Dominic LeBlanc says there’s reason for optimism that a deal permanently preventing U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods can be reached.
That’s as the 30-day reprieve now provides time and the needed structure to understand exactly what’s behind President Donald Trump’s threats, but also the opportunity to hit home what’s at stake.
The New Brunswick MP, who is Canada’s finance minister, now expects to be in Washington early next week.
“I am confident that we now have a timeline and a process that will give us an opportunity to do two things,” LeBlanc said. “The first thing we need to do is agree on some basic economic facts in the relationship, things like the trade deficit numbers.”
While LeBlanc said there’s incorrect numbers being passed around on “both sides of the border,” it’s Trump who repeatedly states that the U.S. has about a $200 billion deficit with Canada.
The U.S. government’s own bureau of economic analysis places the trade deficit at about $40.6 billion in 2023, the last year for which full data is available.
And it’s worth noting the deficit is overwhelmingly caused by the U.S. import of inexpensive Canadian oil – about 3.9 million barrels of crude oil per day at a discount to world prices – which helps keep American gas prices down.
LeBlanc said his meetings in Washington will see him meet with Trump Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trump nominee for commerce secretary Howard Lutnick. The first step will be to agree on a process to establish baseline facts.
Step two will be an “inventory” of the partnerships in the economic interest of both countries.
“This is where we have a good story to tell them,” LeBlanc said.
“One of them is energy security, another one would be access to critical minerals, another would be a shared objective around China not dumping into our markets or using other countries as a conduit.
“I think if we establish some common facts we’re going to find there are an awful lot of shared objectives in terms of economic growth in both countries.”
Trump announced over the weekend that he would slap 25 per cent tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods beginning Tuesday, with a lower rate of 10 per cent on the country’s energy products.
Ottawa then announced on Sunday that it would retaliate with 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods.
On Monday afternoon, following two calls with Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau first announced that the U.S. would pause tariffs for at least 30 days.
LeBlanc said he had little optimism as of Monday morning, fully believing Canada was about to be hit with tariffs.
Then hours later, the United States pulled back.
LeBlanc wasn’t on the call with Trump, but was instead having parallel conversations with Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary.
“I spoke with Howard Lutnick three or four times on the weekend and twice on Monday,” LeBlanc said.
Asked what suddenly changed, LeBlanc suggests that the president was “probably better informed” about Canada’s fentanyl plan, its December commitments at the border, and was then armed with new commitments of a “fentanyl czar” and an extra $200 million into a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl.
“I think the president understood the extent to which we take the fight against fentanyl seriously because it’s in our own domestic interest to do so,” LeBlanc said.
But the New Brunswick MP also said a swell of concern from south of the border undoubtedly played a factor.
“Over the weekend, you saw a number of American business leaders, business groups, senior Republican legislatures like Susan Collins from Maine expressing the view that we have held for a long time,” LeBlanc said.
“It’s not in the economic interest of either country to get into this back and forth around tariffs.”
He added: “I don’t pretend to understand the decision-making process in the White House, but clearly the president understood our shared directive around border security and the fight against fentanyl.
“We always thought we had a good story to tell the Americans, but maybe the story wasn’t getting through in the way it did on Monday.”
LeBlanc said the overwhelming resolve of Canadians was also a factor.
“The other thing that I think worked was the solidarity that Canadians felt and the reaction of the Canadian population over the weekend to this unfair hit on our economy,” LeBlanc said.
“It was certainly very reassuring to me.
“At the airport in Moncton, people were stopping me and saying ‘I’m glad your government is standing up to what the Americans are trying to do.’”
He said that is happening everywhere.
It’s Canadians when they go to the grocery store, it’s the willingness of the country’s premiers to stand united and create their own counter measures, it’s the business community’s fortitude in the face of troubled times, LeBlanc said.
“I had very senior business leaders in Toronto, in Montreal, in New Brunswick texting me ‘this is going to be tough, but make sure we don’t give in,’” LeBlanc said.
“There is a real sense of common purpose.”
LeBlanc said that an overwhelmingly strong patriotic response from Canadians to Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs brought a strength of will.
“I think that gave the federal government the resolve to be firm, to defend the Canadian economic interest, to be prepared to respond if the Americans went through with the threat,” he said.
“In the end, we have this pause which may give us an opportunity, we hope, to make progress.”
LeBlanc said the pause also creates the opportunity to fully understand what Trump aims to address through his threat of tariffs.
That includes whether it’s a moving target not meant to be hit.
In confirming on social media the 30-day reprieve, Trump said it will be used “to see whether or not a final economic deal with Canada can be structured.”
“That’s what we hope the next 30 days will help us determine, what are in fact the substantive issues that the Americans want to discuss,” LeBlanc said. “If this 30-day pause gives us a process and a structure to those conversations, it’s going to be a lot more productive than simply imagining what kind of issues will resolve America’s concern.”
He quickly added that Canada will have its own interests and asks on the table too.
“We’re not going to arrive at those conversations without ideas that can benefit the Canadian economy as well,” he said. “It’s not a one-way street.”