The vision articulated by U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday of clearing out Gaza and rebuilding it into an economically vibrant enclave sounds wonderful, but has no hope of becoming reality.
During a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Trump reiterated his position that Gazans should be moved to neighbouring countries while the Strip is rebuilt. Although Trump made similar remarks on Jan. 26, this time he went even further, suggesting the United States could take “ownership” over the enclave and refusing to rule out sending in troops.
“The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip and we’ll do a job with it. We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings,” he said.
While this may sound crazy, there is some justification behind it. According to United Nations estimates, nearly 70 per cent of homes and buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. The territory is strewn with 50-million tons of rubble, which could take upwards of two decades and US$1.2 billion (C$1.7 billion) to clear. And after all that, if Gaza returns to the anemic economic growth it had before the war, a September report from the UN estimated it would take 350 years to restore its gross domestic product to 2022 levels.
As with many of Trump’s plans, however, the idea doesn’t seem particularly well thought out. On one hand, he claimed the redevelopment would be done “for the people — Palestinians, Palestinians mostly, we’re talking about.” But he also discussed finding “another location” for Gazans to live, “a beautiful area to resettle people, permanently.”
One doesn’t need a crystal ball to know how this would end. The Israeli right would see it as an opportunity to reestablish Jewish settlements in the area. The Palestinians would view it as a second “Nakba” and vow to reclaim Gaza through whatever means necessary.
Iran and its allies would frame the move as yet another attempt by the “Great Satan” to takeover Muslim lands. And even if the U.S. could convince neighbouring countries like Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians, they would be held in refugee camps and treated as second-class citizens, just as many of them are treated today.
Meanwhile, Gaza and the West Bank would remain disputed territories, and terrorist organizations would continue to target Israel and the United States.
It certainly doesn’t help that Egypt and Jordan have already rejected the idea. Egypt, which used to control Gaza, has made it quite clear over the years that it doesn’t want anything to do with the enclave. And Jordan is already home to nearly 2.4-million registered Palestinian refugees, many of whom have been forced to live in refugee camps for decades.
It’s hard to imagine that either country could be convinced to take in millions of refugees, many of whom have links to terrorist organizations. Other regional and global powers — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France — have also spoken out against the proposal, ensuring that it has virtually no chance of coming to fruition.
Ultimately, Trump’s talk about depopulating and occupying Gaza shouldn’t be taken any more seriously than his jabs about turning Canada in the 51st state, annexing Greenland or retaking the Panama Canal. None of these threats are particularly realistic, and following through on all of them would be virtually impossible. But this is very much part of the president’s modus operandi.
Since his election in November, Trump has proven quite clearly that he can destabilize entire countries with a mere tweet. He threatens extreme action knowing he can use it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.
The strategy could pay off if it helps convince Hamas that giving up power is its least bad option, if it means that Palestinians will continue to control Gaza. But it has also emboldened the Israeli right, including former national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who have been major impediments to peace and any sort of plan for who will govern Gaza after the war, and will continue to do so if they believe there’s a chance that Israelis could one day resettle Gaza.
There is, however, cause for hope in Trump’s openness to committing American blood and treasure to a “day after” plan for Gaza. Israelis will not accept a situation in which Hamas remains in control of the Strip, and the Palestinians will never see an Israeli occupational government as legitimate.
But if the U.S. can broker a deal that would see international forces come in to stabilize the territory, along with massive investment to start rebuilding it, there’s a possibility that Gaza could one day become the “Riviera of the Middle East” that Trump believes it could be.
Ultimately, Palestinians need to be shown that it is in their interest to choose economic prosperity over perpetual war with their neighbours. In its current form, Trump’s proposal is not going to get us there, but as a starting point, it may just be crazy enough to work.
National Post
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