Game Day 54: Oilers vs Blackhawks
You know who trusts embattled Edmonton Oilers ace Evan Bouchard?
Not a sizable faction of Oilers fans. Not a number of critical voices in the media.
You want to know who trusts him?
His coach, Kris Knoblauch.
NHL coaches have one obvious way to show which players they trust most to help win hockey games and which they trust least.
It’s not what the coaches say. It’s how much ice time they give players.
Bouchard gets more ice than any other Oilers d-man. Evidently his coach thinks Bouchard is the d-man most likely to help his team win a game.
Bouchard plays 23:39 per game on average, 20:07 at even strength. Next highest is his partner Mattias Ekholm at 22:46 per game, 19:50 at even strength. Darnell Nurse plays 19:20 at even strength, third highest, then Brett Kulak, 18:25 and newcomer John Klingberg, 17:35.
Of course, it’s not just the coach who has faith in Bouchard. Hockey commentators who put a lot of store in on-ice metrics also do, mainly because every single metric available to the public shows that all-told, when you compare his offensive play to his defensive play, Bouchard averages out as the single best Edmonton Oilers d-man.
We’ve found the same at the Cult of Hockey. We do video review on all Grade A shot for and against the Oilers to determine which players help create Grade A shots and which players make mistakes on them. We’re not doing this game-in, game-out, year-in, year-out work for our health. We’re doing it to give us a careful record of which players do the most to help the Oilers win. Which ones are involved for good and for ill in the key moments of the game. We’ve been doing this since 2010-11. That’s thousands and thousands of shots we’ve reviewed by now over 15 years.
It turns out Bouchard is excellent at creating Grade A shots and his rate of mistakes on Grade A shots against is mediocre. He is more likely than any other Oilers d-man to set up a Grade A shot at even strength. This year Bouchard also the most likely to make a mistake on one, but not by much, and the good in his game far outweighs the bad.
One more vote of confidence in Bouchard just came in from stats expert Mark Kelly, an analyst for the NHL hockey network. Kelly has access to all kinds of proprietary private stats that the average fan can’t access. He reports the following: “Evan Bouchard had a pair of assists last night and sits 7th in scoring amongst defencemen. He ranks top-5 in a number of key areas including puck possession, scoring chances, completing outlet passes and how often he turns the puck over relative to how often he has it.”
The Cult of Hockey has found that Bouchard is making a high rate of turnovers this season leading to Grade A shots against. If fans are down on Bouchard, this is a valid reason for them to be down.
Turnovers are critical mistakes, as it’s hard for the the rest of the team to react and recover from that sudden change of possession, often in their own zone, and to suddenly shift from offensive mode to defensive mode. Essentially, such turnovers cause chaos and Bouchard has too often been an agent of that chaos this year.
Bouchard did better in this regard last year, especially when we compare his ratio of making excellent stretch passes leading to Grade A shots to his rancid turnovers leading to Grade A shots against.
But Kelly’s puck possession numbers put Bouchard’s high number of turnovers into context. If a player has the puck on his stick a lot, he’s going to make a higher rate of turnovers than other players. But it turns out Bouchard’s pretty good at limiting mistakes given how much he has the puck.
Bouchard is fourth in the entire NHL for puck possession. Most often that puck possession leads to very good things, to great outlet passes and scoring chances. This also leads to a good number of turnovers, but that’s how it is with offensive players.
The puck is on their stick, so good and bad will happen. The key is for the good to outnumber the bad, and overall with Bouchard’s game that’s the case.
P.S
At the Cult of Hockey
Kurt Leavins: Game grades in win over Blues
Staples on politics
