Labour faces a mounting electoral threat from Reform UK, with a former party adviser warning that mathematical analysis shows significant risks to MPs with slim majorities.
Paul Richards, a former Labour special adviser, told GB News that recent opinion polls have shown “an incredible surge of support for Reform”.
The rising popularity of the challenger party has prompted concerns within Labour ranks about their electoral strategy.
“I’ve been saying this for weeks, but it’s just a question of maths. If you look at the number of Labour MPs with small majorities, with Reform in second place, then it’s an obvious thing that the Labour Party has to look at the threat from Reform,” Richards said.
Nigel Farage has been projected to cause ‘genuine threat’ to Labour after a ‘surge of support’ for Reform UK
Parliament TV
The Reform UK leader was heckled by Labour MPs as he attempted to ask a question at Prime Ministers Questions this afternoon.
Farage laughed at the “panic” he’d caused on “that side of the bench” as he asked: “The 25,000 constituents, in Clacton, including 99 year old Jim O’Dwyer, who flew a full set of missions on Lancaster bombers tail are losing their Winter Fuel Allowance.
“They are feeling the pinch whilst at the same time we’re prepared to give away a military base and pay £18billion for the privilege of doing that.”
The Prime Minister responded by saying: “The only panic is people using the NHS, who he wants to charge them for using it under his policy. What he should say to the people of Clacton when he finally finds them, is that they should vote Labour because we are stabilising the economy and boosting the growth.”
The former Labour Special Adviser said Labour must ‘look at the threat of Reform’ and the growing support
GB News
Speaking to GB News, Richards emphasised Labour must address why voters are turning to what he described as a “challenger disruptor party.” Among those potentially at risk are senior Labour figures including “Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband”, Richards warned.
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“Reform can’t win an election, but they can certainly take out an awful lot of Labour MPs, including people, by the way, like Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband and others, some of the real bigwigs, so it is a genuine threat,” he said.
Richards suggested the threat was particularly evident during Prime Minister’s Questions, noting that Labour’s approach to Reform was reflected in their parliamentary strategy. According to Richards, doorstep conversations have revealed several key concerns driving voter sentiment.
“If you do talk to people on doorsteps, things that come out again and again are anti-social behaviour, the lack of police on the streets, particularly in terms of neighbourhood policing,” he told GB News.
He highlighted a growing “epidemic of shoplifting and stores just being robbed” as another significant concern among voters.
Richards told GB News that the threat to Labour from Reform is ‘genuine’
GB News
These “bread and butter issues” are areas where Labour believes it can make meaningful progress, Richards suggested.
He indicated that Labour’s strategy would focus on demonstrating how they can effectively tackle these community-level concerns. Richards emphasised that Labour’s success would ultimately depend on its ability to deliver tangible economic improvements.
“The next Labour Government will be judged on its ability to grow the economy, but only if that translates into what people feel in their pockets and in their communities and on their streets,” he said.
He stressed that voters need to feel safe in their communities and have access to well-paying jobs. “If they feel safe walking down the road, and if they feel that they’ve got a job to go to that pays a decent whack and that their kids have got an opportunity, then we’re in business,” Richards concluded.