The pausing of tariffs against Canada is a good thing for the national economy, but it’s unclear what it means for those party leaders vying for votes in the Ontario election. This was supposed to be the tariff election. How will it unfold now that there are no tariffs?
President Donald Trump’s deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over drugs and border security measures has pushed back the imposition of tariffs by 30 days. The tariffs, if they happen at all, won’t then be implemented until after the Feb. 27 election that was called by Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
The election wasn’t supposed to be until over a year from now, but Ford made the call to have it much earlier. The big rush, he said, was that he needed a strong majority mandate now so he could spend tens of billions of dollars to support the economy in response to the tariffs.
It was supposed to be an election about who was the best leader to respond to Trump and defend jobs and the economy — Ontario PC Leader Ford, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie or NDP Leader Marit Stiles.
For the first week of the election, Ford took up all the oxygen in the room. The other party leaders received little attention.
Because he’s the sitting Premier, Ford both governed and campaigned at the same time. When he appeared on national and international media to discuss the tariffs, he was doing it as a statesman, not as a candidate.
When he announced he was pulling American liquor off the shelves or cancelling a $100 million contract with Starlink, he was actually making it happen, rather than campaigning on a promise to do it later on. There was nothing the other candidates could do to match the energy and attention that flowed from those high-profile decisions.
What will happen now though? If there is no more breaking news that propels Ford front and centre, then the campaign could migrate to a traditional tempo where the other party leaders receive more attention and, potentially, traction.
Ford isn’t willing to give up on the tariff narrative though. A senior campaign source I spoke with said they’re sticking to their guns. The message at the doors and their main campaign focus will still be responding to potential tariffs and Trump.
It was mere minutes after the news broke that Ford delivered a statement to that effect. “Make no mistake, Canada and Ontario continue to stare down the threat of tariffs,” it read. “Whether it’s tomorrow, in a month or a year from now when we’re renegotiating the United States — Mexico — Canada Agreement, President Trump will continue to use the threat of tariffs to get what he wants. We’re already feeling the impact.”
It’ll be interesting to see how long this narrative holds. The Liberals are already trying to flip the script with an attack ad on Ford that attempts to make him look like he’s not on Team Canada but Team Trump.
During a campaign event on Monday, Ford was filmed telling a group of supporters that aside from the tariffs issue he was happy Trump won the election. “On election day, was I happy this guy won? One hundred per cent I was. Then the guy pulled out the knife and f—- yanked it into us.”
The Liberal ads play this moment on loop and claim this proves Ford and Trump are one and the same. Good luck getting that one to stick though. The voting public has just spent a week watching Ford pledge aggressive retaliation against the United States, so the idea that he’s about to cave in to Trump will be a hard sell on them. It’s as if the Ontario Liberals are telling voters to believe them over their own lying eyes.
There’s still time for a plot twist in this short election, particularly with the notoriously fickle Trump playing a supporting role. And it could go either way.
If Trump comes back to hammer Canada for another round, Ford can don the “Ontario is Not For Sale” cap and play Captain Canada once again. Or Trump may drop the issue and thus it drifts away from the minds of voters and a previously overlooked domestic issue becomes the focus. And Ford could still prevail on those issues too.
As it stands, the PCs current seat count is large and so is their lead in the polls. Three weeks remain and everything is still going in Doug Ford’s favour.
National Post