U.S. President Donald Trump is demanding that Canada and Mexico beef up border security and stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into his country, and suggesting similar retaliation in the form of a broad 25-per-cent tariff on imports if they don’t.
But numbers show that not all borders are created equal, and that Canada has little to answer for when it comes to fentanyl and migrants crossing into the United States. Here’s what to know.
How much fentanyl crosses from Canada into the U.S.?
According to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, in the 2024 fiscal year (October to September), some 43 pounds (19.5 kg) of the drug fentanyl were seized at the border, bound for the United States, with an additional 10 pounds (4.5 kg) intercepted since then.
This is a large increase over 2022 and 2023, which saw seizures of 14 pounds (6.3 kg) and two pounds (almost 1 kg) respectively. However, the numbers were also buoyed by two months (June and July) that saw 23 pounds (10 kg) seized.
Is that a large amount compared to Mexico?
Not at all. Those figures amount to little more than a rounding error when compared to numbers from the southern border. Fentanyl seizures there last year amounted to approximately 21,100 pounds, or 9,500 kg. In the last three years, the lowest monthly figure for fentanyl seizures at the southern border was 461 pounds, or almost seven times the amount seized at the Canadian border during the entire three-year period.
What about fentanyl from China?
U.S. coastal and interior seizures, which would presumably include China, totalled 1,583 pounds (718 kg) over the last three years — 10 times less than the supply from the southern border, yet still more than 25 times as much as was arriving from Canada.
Is there much fentanyl coming into Canada from the U.S.?
It would seem there isn’t, at least based on seizures. The Canada Border Service Agency reports that in the first 10 months of 2024, it seized 4.9 kg of fentanyl, much of that outbound, and a majority of it headed towards the Netherlands.
How many illegal migrants are entering the U.S. from Canada?
U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports that fiscal 2024 saw a total of 198,929 “land border encounters,” as it calls them. This was up slightly from 189,402 the previous year, and from 109,535 in 2022. Numbers in the last three months suggest they are on track for similar numbers this year as last year.
How does that compare to Mexico?
As with fentanyl, the numbers at the southern border are an order of magnitude larger. In 2024, there were 2.135 million land border encounters on the Mexican/U.S. border — more than 11 times the numbers for Canada. The previous two years had similar totals of 2.475 million and 2.378 million respectively. In other words, there are almost as many crossings from Mexico in a month as there are from Canada in a year.
Is anyone travelling north into Canada from the U.S.?
Similar to the drug trade, the flow of migrants north is also minuscule in comparison. The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada reported that, last year, asylum claimants at land ports of entry numbered some 15,425 people, fewer than a tenth of the numbers going south.
What has Justin Trudeau said about the numbers?
In a clip of an interview on MSNBC News last month, the prime minister talked about an earlier meeting he’d had with then-president-elect Trump.
He told Jen Psaki, host of Inside with Jen Psaki and a former White House press secretary: “He has concerns about the border between Canada and the United States, particularly around migration and around fentanyl,” adding, “I was pleased to highlight that less than one per cent of the illegal migrants, less than one per cent of the fentanyl that comes into the United States comes from Canada.”
What does Mexico think of these numbers?
Canadian officials have pointed out the discrepancies between Canadian and Mexican border crossings and the drug trade, and it has not gone unnoticed in Mexico.
In December, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told the Associated Press that “Mexico must be respected, especially by its trading partners.” She added that Canada had its own social problems with fentanyl use, and for good measure added that Canada “could only wish they had the cultural riches Mexico has.”
But at the same time, Canadians remain touchy about being lumped in with America’s southern neighbour. Ontario Premier Doug Ford called it “the most insulting thing” he had heard from the U.S.
The National Post has contacted the White House for comment and is awaiting a response.
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