The war is on and unless there is a miracle truce, it officially begins Tuesday.
So, Canada is bracing itself for incoming tariffs and has vowed to return fire.
“The only thing certain with President (Donald) Trump is uncertainty,” Premier Doug Ford said Saturday on the campaign trail in Brampton, adding he’s fighting for a new mandate since “that gives us a lot more strength when we’re negotiating.”
The battlefield will be on many fronts: Auto sector. Oil and gas. Electricity. Manufacturing. Agriculture. Spirits, beer and wine.
At this point American booze is still on the shelves of LBCO stores. But for how much longer?
When Trump applies his promised 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, the shelves may no longer have American products – some of are actually Canadian brands now owned by American conglomerates.
Trump’s claim this war is vital because of Canada is sending fentanyl and illegal immigrants to the U.S. is as exaggerated as the claim that America would build a border wall and Mexico would pay for it.
True, as the Washington Post reported, there has been a “spread of clandestine fentanyl labs in Canada that could undermine U.S. enforcement efforts,” and more labs in British Columbia have been a staging area for shipping the deadly drug. But Canada also has concerns with drugs and illegal migrants and firearms coming in from the U.S.
Both countries should be working on these issues together and the RCMP should shut down such labs ASAP.
Instead, there is war talk.
Trump’s first strike in his economic offensive is expected Tuesday against a country he has repeatedly and disrespectfully said should be his country’s 51st state.
But Canadian leaders are poised for battle.
“I won’t sugarcoat it. Our nation could be facing difficult times in the coming days and weeks,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday.
There are many opinions on whether standing up to a much bigger foe like the U.S. is the right way to approach this, but this is what they have decided to do. Only time will tell.
“If tariffs do, in fact, come tomorrow, the federal government needs to be ready to immediately implement a strong and forceful response – dollar-for-dollar, tariff-for-tariff,” Ford said. “The federal government has my full support to hit back and hit back hard.”
Interestingly, Adam Sperling, the president and CEO of Sperling Silver Distillery, which makes vodkas, brandies, gin and rye products, believes this trade war could shine some light on the problem that small craft Canadian distilleries already face with tax and tariff burdens not just in America but within Canadian provinces as well.
“Canadian Distillers pay 13 times the excise rate that U.S. distillers pay, which is an unfair advantage to U.S. distillers,” said Sperling. “Canadian Craft Distillers and small producers are already experiencing punitive federal tariffs and provincial levies that hurt economic growth in this sector.”
“For craft producers to market and sell their products inter-provincially, it is important that their is a standard that provides producers a competitive opportunity,” he added.
Sperling said the way things are currently constructed, “they won’t let the little guy grow.”
Maybe this will change.
Ford has already hinted at this potentially being a turning point where Ontario can highlight award-winning Canadian products – like those produced by Sperling Silver Distillery and so many others in Ontario and across Canada.
Sperling said small distillers are hopeful this can be a catalyst in creating an even playing field for both the U.S. and Canada.
Of course, right now the focus is more on the massive trade war that is about to break out. And Ford is in a warrior’s mood.
“Canada has so much of what America needs, what their military and economy depend on – high-grade nickel and other critical minerals, energy and electricity, uranium, potash,” the Premier said. “If President Trump proceeds with these tariffs, Canada can and should make him regret them.”
Ford, who has threatened to pull energy being sent to U.S. states and to pull American wine and spirits from LCBO shelves, also said “if this fight lasts, if the U.S. doesn’t see reason, Ontario is prepared to support and use every tool in our tool kit to win this fight.”
The LCBO has so for not commented on the pending tariffs, but individual employees say they have not yet been given any instructions to pull American products..
However, the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DSCUS) warns that doing so would also have ramifications for Canadian distillers.
“As for Doug Ford’s idea, this would cost Ontario significant tax revenue and upset Canadian consumers,” said Chris Swonger, president and CEO of DSCUS. “Note that Canada exports a significant amount of Canadian whiskey to the United States and this kind of retaliation by Ontario could result in a tit for tat and the Canadian hospitality sector and Canadian distillers would be significantly more harmed.”
“Distilled spirits like Canadian whiskey are distinctive products and should not be involved in the ongoing dialogue over tariffs,” Swonger said. “We hope the Trump Administration and the Canadian government find common ground on the important issues President Trump has registered concerns about.”
And with the first shot expected to be fire Tuesday, they better hurry up.