The Progressive Conservatives hold the largest lead recorded for a party since “the turn of the century,” a new poll has found, with Doug Ford well out in front of the rest at the start of Ontario’s snap election campaign.
The survey, conducted exclusively for Global News by Ipsos Public Affairs, suggests if the election were held tomorrow the PCs would form a third consecutive majority government, with greater support than both the NDP and Liberal votes combined.
Fifty per cent of decided and leaning voters said they would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservatives, while 24 per cent would choose the Liberals. The Ontario NDP polled at 20 per cent, with the Greens at six per cent.
“This is the biggest lead we have seen any party have in Ontario since the turn of the century,” Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said.
“Last time Doug Ford won by 14 points, it looks like this time around, if an election were held tomorrow, he’d win by 26. So was he right to call this election? It appears to be so.”
Ford seen as best premier, PCs ahead across demographics
Ford himself appears to be an asset to his party’s cause, performing best of the party leaders as a potential premier and with a strong approval rating.
Almost half, or 46 per cent of Ontarians, believe Ford would make the best premier, ahead of Crombie in second place with 26 per cent, the poll found.
Stiles, who led the official opposition at dissolution, is in third place with 19 per cent. Ten per cent of Ontarians believe Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner would make the best premier.
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Ford’s personal approval rating is also up. Fifty-seven per cent of Ontarians approve of his government’s performance, higher than the 51 per cent recorded at the start of the 2022 election campaign.
The polling shows that the PCs are also ahead in all demographics.
Fifty-two per cent of men and 48 per cent of women selected Ford’s party as their preference. Forty-six per cent of people aged 18 to 34 said they’d vote PC, while 48 per cent of decided and leaning urban voters said they would vote for Ford. In rural communities, the number jumped to 74 per cent.
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“The Conservatives lead with every single major demographic group,” Bricker said.
“Normally there’s a gender gap that works to the advantage of more progressive parties — we’re not seeing that this time. Generally, progressive parties do better with younger voters — we’re not seeing that this time.”
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Liberals ‘adrift,’ polling with NDP
While the Progressive Conservatives are nine points ahead of their 2022 election result, the Liberals and NDP are either stagnant or behind.
In 2022, the NDP received 24 per of the popular vote, as did the Liberals. The Ipsos poll has the Liberals still sitting at 24 per cent, while the NDP have dropped to 20 per cent.
The selection of Crombie as Liberal leader last year appears not to have boosted the party, which sits at the same place it did when Steven Del Duca led it in 2022.
“The Liberals seem to be quasi-adrift,” Bricker said. “They’re basically tied with the NDP, except on the issue of integrity where the NDP does better but (are) lacking a real clear definition of who they are, who their leader is. They really haven’t improved.”
While 52 per cent of people said they believed the early election call was “cynical politics” on the part of Ford, the other 48 per cent agree with the PC Leader’s message that an election is necessary to deal with Trump.
Only 14 per cent of voters believe managing relations with the U.S. is a top issue, however, making it the eighth most important election issue. Ipsos found the PCs have a 39-point led over the Liberals on the topic of the U.S.
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Bricker said the gains the Progressive Conservatives are making seem to be coming at the expense of the NDP.
In central Toronto, where the Liberals and NDP have historically done well, the PCs are ahead. The poll found 37 per cent of decided or leaning voters would vote for Ford’s party tomorrow in the 416, compared to 31 per cent who would vote Liberal.
Elsewhere, the PCs hold a particularly commanding lead in northern and central Ontario. The NDP looks to have its strongest support in southwest Ontario at 27 per cent, still behind the PCs on 47 per cent.
Most top issues favour PCs
The most important issue to voters in the next election is health care, according to the poll, with the Liberals four points ahead of the PCs on which party is the strongest to handle the issue.
The next seven most important issues, however, all saw Ford’s party selected as the strongest. The PCs led on day-to-day costs, lower taxes, economy and jobs, housing affordability, creating affordable housing, crime and safety and managing relations with the U.S.
Forty per cent of voters said health care was the top issue, with 33 per cent selecting “help with cost of day-to-day needs.” Lower taxes was third with 28 per cent.
The poll asked voters to name up to three most important issues.
On lower taxes, the third most important issue, the PCs led “no party” by 19 points, while they also led “no party” by seven points on help to make housing more affordable. The creation of affordable housing saw the PCs record a six-point lead over the NDP.
The other parties appear to be struggling to shift the narrative.
“It really is up to the opposition parties to take the game to the Progressive Conservatives and to really demonstrate that there’s a need for change in the government and they haven’t been able to do that in the space of the three years, ” Bricker said.
“The problem is, the Ford government isn’t bad enough and the opposition parties haven’t been able to demonstrate they’re better.”
With health care seen as the top campaign issue, and weeks still remaining before election day, Bricker said there is space for the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens to eat into that lead but it could be a tough task.
“This is going to very likely tighten up but it’s such a big gap it’s really hard to say how much progress the opposition parties can make,” he said.
The election will be held on Feb. 27.
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos poll was conducted between Jan. 29 and 30, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 800 residents of Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population of Ontario according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.