There’s something peculiar about Doug Ford’s record as premier of Ontario.
He’s made lots of mistakes, at least one of them a whopper. For much of his government’s six-plus years he’s been classed among Canada’s least popular premiers. He’s just triggered an election he might not need, well before it’s due. Yet there’s a very good chance he’ll win a third majority, possibly by a large margin.
So what gives?
There’s no question he’s had his fumbles. He imposed a one per cent pay cap on Ontario’s public employees only to have it rejected by the courts in a ruling that cost at least $6.7 billion in back pay plus millions more in legal fees.
He struggled in the early days of COVID, closing playgrounds, fighting over sick leave policies and empowering police to randomly question anyone caught outside their home. He let a senior cabinet member sun himself in the Caribbean while faking videos indicating he was in Canada. He spent $225 million — or maybe it’s $1.4 billion, the numbers keep changing — to liberate drinkers from Depression-era booze laws even though it would have happened anyway if he’d just waited a year.
And then there’s the doozy: Ford’s attempt to boost housing construction by opening up parts of a protected green belt around Toronto, despite having pledged not to do so. The move meant huge potential profits for landowners when Ford was already seen as too cozy with the development crowd, sparking such a backlash he was forced into full retreat and still faces the potential for embarrassment from an ongoing RCMP criminal investigation.
Before he even formalized Tuesday’s election call, the premier was being accused by media commentators and political opponents of staging an expensive election out of pure opportunism, having spotted a convenient chance to play Captain Canada in the face of tariff threats from the new administration in Washington.
Despite all that in the hopper, indications are that Ford’s Progressive Conservatives won’t just hang onto their majority, but could increase it. Polls show them 18 to 22 points ahead of the Liberals and New Democrats. Projections also indicate Ford could pick up a handful of extra seats over the 83 he won in 2021, widening the gap over distant opponents.
To understand what’s going on requires a grasp of Ford himself and the eccentricities of politics. Justin Trudeau started his political career as the cute boyfriend who fit comfortably in middle-class living rooms but ended his days being chased from office in an outpouring of derision. Ford, in contrast, entered elected office perceived as a bumptious bully and somehow morphed into the likeable if impetuous uncle who means well even if he doesn’t always think through the consequences of his actions.
He’s sending out $200 cheques to every Ontarian and getting away with it, while Trudeau’s plan for $250 handouts helped get him ejected from his job. His cancelling of fees for licence plate renewals and ending of tolls on a provincially owned highway were just as blatantly gimmicks as the ones that prompted Trudeau’s resignation, but show no sign of harming his standing.
It’s Trudeau who was supposed to be the master manipulator of public opinion. Ford’s ability to survive might suggest he’s better at it than he gets credit for, although scrutiny of past messes suggests he too often gives little advance thought to optics.
Voters’ willingness to live with his snafus may relate to how he responds to them. He admits to mistakes and is willing to alter direction. He looked close to tears while begging forgiveness for his early COVID stumbles, then rebuilt his popularity with regular folksy TV appearances outlining efforts against the pandemic. He delivered an extended apology for his Greenbelt disaster, admitting, “I made a promise to you that I wouldn’t touch the Greenbelt. I broke that promise. And for that I’m very, very sorry.”
His reasons for populist freebies are obvious enough, but don’t quite cancel their attraction. No one liked paying licence plate fees that were little more than a money grab, and while Trudeau’s cheques came in tandem with a gargantuan $60-billion federal deficit, Ontario expected to be close to delivering a balanced budget. And although Ford attracts much mockery for his crusade against century-old drinking laws, nobody loved the Prohibition-era strictures or thought the near-monopoly on beer sales granted a trio of giant foreign multinationals should be continued.
You can sense the frustration in his critics, who have had six years to carve a dent in Tory popularity with little success. Ford came to office as a spending hawk pledged to getting costs under control but has passed some of the province’s richest-ever budgets. Before becoming premier he accused Liberals of wasting millions of dollars on self-congratulatory government-sponsored ads but last year spent twice as much as his Liberal predecessor.
As is often the case in extended regimes, he’s been lucky in his opponents. After two disastrous election losses the once-mighty Liberals have another new leader trying to lift them from the cellar. Former Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie has called the government “desperate” and “scandal-plagued” but admits gaining traction has been tougher than expected. While polls show Liberals leading New Democrats in popular support, they could still end up in third place when votes are translated to seats.
NDP leader Merit Stiles is also making her first foray as leader and can currently boast support from just one voter in five.
There’s no question Ford’s election call is opportunistic. The next election wasn’t due until mid-2026 — plenty of time for the Tories to prepare a response to the U.S. economic threat and allow Ontarians to assess it before passing judgment. He’s betting voters will once again give him the benefit of the doubt, and he may once again be right.
National Post