The Ontario provincial election that was triggered on Tuesday could unfold with a bang or with a whimper. Will the short campaign be full of unexpected twists and turns or will it be a sleepy affair where little changes? It’s too soon to say which direction the early Feb. 27 vote that’s been called by Premier Doug Ford will head in.
The purpose of asking the electorate to go to the polls more than a year earlier than scheduled, according to Ford, is so he can get a clear mandate on how to respond to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canada and, therefore, on the Ontario economy.
“The kind of action required to respond to President Trump’s threats will impact the province’s fiscal plan and our path to balance,” Ford explained in a guest op-ed in the Post. Ford says his Ontario PC government is planning to spend tens of billions of dollars in response to tariffs and to cut red tape and streamline approvals to spur economic activity.
“As taxpayers, this is your money. Ontario is your province and this is your future. Your voice should be heard,” the premier added.
That’s the policy rationale. The political strategy though is believed to be that Ford wants to face his election before and not after a federal election — the idea being that if Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre becomes prime minister the voters may decide they have had their fill of conservatives and therefore be less inclined to re-elect Ford.
If the election stays focused on the response to tariffs, then there should be no reason that Ford won’t cruise to an easy re-election with the strong majority mandate he seeks.
In this scenario, there is little room for NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie to make a meaningful mark or take the reins in the conversation. They have spent the months leading up to the election drawing attention to completely different domestic policy matters in the Ontario legislature.
Ford will be looking beyond the Ontario legislature and speaking over the opposition leaders, as he discusses Trump’s policies as well as the tariff responses from the federal government and other Canadian premiers. There will be little need for him to even mention his opponents, which will be maddening for them as it will turn them into supporting characters in a show where they were expecting to be featured centre stage.
Besides, Ford has spent the bulk of his time as premier focused on economic growth and competitiveness. Responding to tariffs fits in just fine with his skillset to date. The same can’t be said for the opposition parties. Giving the keys to the province to the NDP when the economy is in a precarious position is the last thing you’d want to do.
If this is how the election plays out, expect an uneventful campaign where the opposition fails to gain traction and the results closely match those of the 2022 provincial vote.
These are all big “ifs” on hand though. Donald Trump could turn on a dime. Tariffs could be punitive and enacted swiftly. Or they could be dropped in an instant and the conversation abruptly ends.
The American president could propose something entirely new and unexpected that sends Canadian politicians’ best laid plans out the window. A campaign strategy that relies heavily on deftly navigating the whims and fancies of Donald Trump is risky business.
This year has already proven to be a wild ride politically. Twelve months ago it was difficult to imagine Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation and Canadians earnestly discussing whether or not they wish to become the 51st state and yet here we are — and it’s only January.
Whatever the focus of the Ontario election on day one, it’s unlikely that it will hold until the end of the campaign, if only because of the current pace of the news cycle. Unexpected events could derail Ford’s campaign strategy.
That said, the basic math within the legislature’s seating chart will be hard for the opposition to overcome. The Progressive Conservatives hold a commanding majority with 79 seats, compared to 28 for the NDP and 9 for the Liberals. Even if the issues up for debate change, don’t expect a big swing in the seat count.