The Ontario Liberals will need to catch a few breaks if they are to climb out of the political basement in next month’s provincial election. They got one Monday, or so it seems at first glance.
A new Financial Accountability Office (FAO) report says the cost of expanding Ontario’s beer and wine retail network earlier than planned is about $600 million. That’s more than twice as much as the provincial government had indicated. If you really want a big number, then all the changes to the industry combined could reduce the government’s net booze take by $1.4 billion in total by the end of 2030.
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie was quick to capitalize on the report. She’d already been talking about “Doug Ford’s boozedoggle,” claiming changing beer and wine retail rules early would cost $1 billion. Imagine her joy at reading the FAO’s report. Just to make the most of it, the Liberals described the “boozedoggle” as costing $1.9 billion.
That’s how much all the changes might cost at the high end, the FAO says. The low end is $529 million. We’re not talking precision accounting here due to too many unpredictable variables, chief among them drinkers’ future enthusiasm.
As you might imagine, there are a lot of moving parts in the retail deal, but the biggest one is tax revenue lost by shifting sales from The Beer Store, which paid the government retail taxes, to other stores that don’t. That tax exemption predated Ford’s latest changes, but broadening the market increases its effect.
The tax exemption could amount to nearly $1.3 billion in lost tax revenue by 2030, the biggest part of the cost, by far. The government says the goal is to enable retailers to compete and offer the public lower prices. The new retailers’ key competitor is the LCBO, which doesn’t pay the tax.
Opposition leaders and some media were scandalized by the idea of government reducing a tax, but tax cuts do not cost taxpayers money, as is being commonly reported. Government spending costs taxpayers money, reduced revenue does not, especially if the beer and wine tax reductions do lower retail prices.
Nevertheless, Crombie indulged in an apples to oranges comparison, saying “The $1.9 billion, it could have been used to hire 1,400 family doctors — 1,400 — and that would have been able to care for two million people.”
What a good idea. Within hours of Crombie making the suggestion, the Ford government rolled out a new plan to spend $1.8 billion to connect two million people to a family doctor or primary care team within four years. The plan is the work of Dr. Jane Philpott, the former federal Liberal health minister the provincial government brought in last fall to lead the way on primary care expansion.
As a plan, it has everything one could ask for. It has a significant target, measurable annual goals and a promise to publicly report on progress. It is endorsed by the major associations representing nurses and doctors.
The question is, will it be enough? The PC plan promises to connect “everyone in Ontario” to a family doctor within four years, but it’s widely claimed that there are already more than two million Ontarians without a family doctor. What about the effects of physician retirement and population growth?
Crombie herself has offered a “guarantee” that all Ontarians would be connected to a family doctor within four years. Her plan includes a number of specific actions designed to achieve that goal. Presumably the Crombie guarantee would not be money back.
It’s interesting that Crombie still thinks that she can gain ground on Ford by attacking him personally and referring to boondoggles and his “billionaire buddies,” as she did Monday. If it was a winning strategy, Ford’s support in the polls wouldn’t be nearly double hers. Voters are well aware of Ford’s faults but support him anyway.
Similarly, there’s no use fussing about an unnecessary election and its $175-million cost. Of course it’s unnecessary but that ship has sailed and if the election were paid for next year instead of this year, it would make no difference. Actually, you’d think an opposition leader would relish an election as a chance to remove Ford from office even earlier.
It’s past time for Crombie to pivot from attacking Ford to convincing voters they should vote for her. It’s a bit of a secret, but she has a three-priority plan to cut taxes, lower housing construction costs and improve health care. That’s something to talk about.
If the Liberal leader wants to be premier, she’d better start selling her ideas immediately. This four-week election will be over as fast as she can snap her fingers.
National Post
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