As Donald Trump becomes President for the second time, the world is watching on, wondering what impact the “America First” leader will have on global affairs.
Eight years ago, there was a fear of the unknown, this time round, unless you’re in Greenland, there will be less uncertainty.
When Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came to power in the 1980s, the so-called special relationship between the USA and the UK entered a golden era. They hit it off almost straight away, working together on a nuclear deterrent and a common political agenda. But it’s not always a relationship that depends on shared values. Personal chemistry is just as important.
Tony Blair was able to create a bond with the Republican George W Bush, and the young Democrat JFK found a close relationship with older Tory Harold Macmillan.
So, what does the relationship look like under Trump 2.0? His first presidency gave some clues. It was awkward at times over Covid conspiracy theories, embarrassing hand-holding with Theresa May and landing helicopters on the Queen’s precious front lawn. But despite these faux pas, the world order did not collapse.
This time round there are a few tricky diplomatic issues for the Labour Government. Both Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Lord Peter Mandelson – our new man in Washington – are going to have to live with some rather tasty remarks they made about Trump. Calling the President a “women-hating, neo nazi sociopath” must make the ever-diplomatic mandarins at the Foreign Office cringe each time it’s repeated.
It’s hard to see how Keir Starmer and Trump can build a personal relationship, as individuals, they’re the polar opposites.
One deals in facts, the other grand statements that sail close to the truth. Meanwhile, Trump’s close advisor, Elon Musk has already said Starmer should be deposed.
Reform UK could be BIG winners in Trump’s ‘golden age’ but there are two major challenges – Mark OatenHowever, there may be an unusual route: Trump has a soft spot for the Royal Family, the King, or more likely, Prince William can roll out the red carpet a few times to keep things sweet.
On the substantial issues, there are two big challenges: free trade and Ukraine.Trump’s threat of blanket tariffs into America may be huff and puff. It’s more likely to be a problem for Canada and China.
This may even present an opportunity for the UK to create its own relationship with China.On international issues, Trump declared he would end the war in Ukraine within a month of coming to office. This could be a tension point for the UK and its allies if any peace deal is not acceptable to Ukraine. Where does this leave the UK?
Would they continue to support Ukraine and provide military support? There are other cultural trends that will emerge. The shift away from the woke agenda under Trump and the big American social media giants may drift across the Atlantic. Woke might have had its day and be replaced with a more robust say it and don’t give a dam approach.
The impact on UK politics is interesting. Starmer and Kemi Badenoch could feel sidelined as, yet again, Reform and Nigel Farage are well positioned.
Farage has a strong relationship with the President, and Trump’s no-nonsense patriotic approach plays well for Reform. One thing is for sure with Trump.
Expect the unexpected and be prepared for its impact over here, as they say, when America sneezes, the UK catches a cold.