Donald Trump being sworn in as president on Monday in Washington will mark the final act in the biggest political comeback in history. Four years ago, Trump left the White House in disgrace after the Capitol Riots, abandoned by his closest advisors, he seemed destined to never return.
That he won the 2024 presidential election was a political miracle.
Before even taking office, he’s been having an impact in politics and culture alike. We’ve seen companies abandon their commitment to DEI culture, and big banks around the world recently dropped their support of Mark Carney’s net-zero commitment for financial institutions.
On Sunday, hostages held by Hamas for more than 15 months were returned to Israel as part of the ceasefire deal that Trump helped bring about. While the Biden administration played a huge role in the talks, Trump’s team entered the fray for the final push, and the incoming president’s threat of hell to pay if hostages weren’t released sealed the deal.
Trump is changing the way diplomacy is conducted, something we are well aware of here in Canada.
It was on social media at the end of November that Trump made the shock announcement that Canada would face 25% tariffs on all exports to the U.S. unless certain conditions on the border were made. Of course, since then, Trump has moved from demanding action on the border to talking about taking over all of Canada — and what seemed like a joke designed to irritate Prime Minister Justin Trudeau doesn’t seem like a joke anymore.
On Monday, we discover what his tariff threat will look like and from there we’ll be able assess the impact.
Recommended video
In some ways, Trump’s commitment to tariffs and comments about taking over Canada have boosted patriotism in this country. Even Trudeau, who has called Canada a genocidal state, is suddenly calling Canada the best country in the world.
Trump has also exposed deep divisions in this country that, if not handled carefully, could see us break apart.
“United we stand, divided we fall,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said this past week.
Ford was calling for all provinces to take a united stance against tariffs being brought in Monday by Trump. He and Trudeau were calling for a Team Canada approach in dealing with the economic threat those tariffs represent.
While Ford’s comments were applauded widely, along with his Canada is not-for-sale hat, in parts of Western Canada — in particular Alberta and Saskatchewan — his message fell flat. In fact, I’ve heard from people livid at Ford for expressing this sentiment when it’s felt like much of the country and the Trudeau government in Ottawa has spent the last nine years attacking the oil and gas industry.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has made it clear: she doesn’t want an export tax or export restrictions placed on oil. That view has seen Smith accused of undermining Canada’s negotiating position and even called a traitor.
Crude oil is by far Canada’s most important export by dollar value at more than $113 billion in 2023 — well ahead of auto exports totaling about $26 billion. The view in Alberta, and much of Saskatchewan, is that politicians in central and eastern Canada have spent nearly a decade attacking the oil and gas industry and now they’re suddenly claiming how vital it is.
Think of the record just of the Trudeau government — they cancelled the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines, they delayed other pipeline projects, they passed Bill C-69 and its unconstitutional impact assessment rules, they imposed a tanker ban off B.C.’s coast, and recently imposed emissions caps which will force production cuts on the industry.
If you’ve spent that much time and energy trying to hamper an incredibly important industry that is vital to that region of the country, don’t expect them to immediately embrace a Team Canada approach when you suddenly need that industry to help your own negotiating position.
The feeling that Eastern Canada, Ontario and Quebec specifically, like to get rich off of the hard work of people in Western Canada isn’t new; it didn’t start with Trudeau, though he has rekindled that feeling. More than a century ago, in December 1915, the Grain Grower’s Guide published a cartoon called The Milch Cow.
The cartoon shows a dairy cow eating grain from Alberta, Saskatchewan and the milk being collected by men in top hats with buckets labelled Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.
We are facing an incredibly serious economic threat with Trump’s tariffs, but the political fallout in terms of national unity at this point is real, it has to be handled carefully and based on his track record, Trudeau isn’t the best person for the job. What good will it be to push back against Trump economically while encouraging separatist sentiment in Alberta?
It’s bad enough that Quebec looks set to be governed by the Parti Quebecois, which is promising another referendum on separation. We could soon see a growing separatist movement in the West.
Trudeau’s real legacy will be his role as Canada’s divider in chief.
We should have been a united country ready to deal with Trump’s threats, but we are anything but united. We should have been in a better financial position to deal with the blow our economy will certainly take, but he has sent us into oblivion.
As Trump returns to power and Trudeau gets set to leave, Canada faces an uncertain future with weak leadership.