Today, we wait.
At 3:02 a.m. on Tuesday, the Houthis shot missiles at civilian targets in central Israel and the Jerusalem area. They were successfully intercepted. Just one home, it seems, was damaged by rocket debris that slammed into the roof.
The sun came up.
As you read these words rooms full of men are hammering out the final details of an agreement in Doha, Qatar for Hamas to release 98 hostages brutally kidnapped from Israel. They have been held in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023. This time, it may be real.
The parameters of this deal are unchanged from what has been on the table since last July. So, why now?
A key factor is the threats of American President-elect Donald Trump that there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released by Jan. 20. In the Middle East, Trump is feared. That translates into respect. Which begets power. Everyone in the Middle East fears Trump. Even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
As well, the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas have been assassinated. Their movements and military capabilities have been decimated. Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad has been toppled. The Iranian promoted “axis of terror” stretching uninterrupted from Tehran to the Mediterranean is broken.
Israel’s adversaries have been significantly weakened. The truce with Hezbollah in the north is holding. For now. Hamas is degraded but nowhere near done. The Houthis — of all threats — remain standing. And Iran’s leaders are scared. The swagger and bluster about destroying the “Zionist entity” has subsided in the wake of Trump’s electoral triumph.
Since the U.S. election, Hamas has posted three videos, two of which showed signs of life of hostages. One has been a teaser. The terrorist group has issued statements on Telegram, including last Friday that hostages are guarded now by suicide squads.
Hamas said last week that it needed seven days to locate all the hostages and then another week to prepare them for release. Such offerings are the Hamas way of extending an olive branch. Compel Israel to cave to their terms because of domestic public fury. Every Hamas video taunts and tortures the nation. It knows that.
But, even Hamas seems to be understanding that this war it began is not going well for it. It is certainly not benefitting Palestinian civilians.
The horrific suffering in Gaza and in Israel must end.
Unlike in past moments where hopes for a deal were high, this time there is also action.
Monday, key government ministries and institutions went on a war-like footing to be ready for hostage repatriation. Within days. Hospitals are preparing special wings. Based on limited video evidence and information gleaned from captured terrorists, the working supposition is that the hostages are in poor health. They have been imprisoned in tunnels deep underground; some for the entire 15 months of captivity, the rest, it is believed, since November 2023.
They have been deprived of food, water and hygiene. They live in extremely damp, putrid quarters. Many cannot stand. There is no natural light. Oxygen levels are low. Breathing is a challenge. Many are bound or chained for long periods of time.
All have been physically and psychologically tortured. Sexual assault of women and men has been pervasive.
Prime Minister Netanyahu met Tuesday morning with the hostage families. This is not something he has excelled at throughout this crisis — the human touch. The contrast with American President Joe Biden could not be starker. From day one, Biden has demonstrated a compassion for these families in their torment. The president took the time to meet with every dual American-Israeli family. He phoned their loved ones. He has hosted some at the White House.
In contrast, Netanyahu’s contact with families has been rare and spare.
His government is perceived by many as not having prioritized the negotiation of hostage freedom for various reasons but primarily to assuage his extreme-right coalition partners. Those elements of this government oppose any deal that does not result in the freedom of all hostages at the same time. No stages, they say.
They also oppose any form of ceasefire agreement, vehemently. But even if they do not support the terms of the agreement when it comes to a vote, the opposition parties have pledged to do so. This is about saving the lives of hostages, not a political game. We are long past roulette.
All agree that the release of all 98 would be far preferable. But as key Israeli negotiators pointed out on news panels, there is one deal on the table. And we are out of time. Hostages are at risk of being murdered at every moment. There is no more sand in the hourglass.
Israel was founded and has thrived in a punishingly existential environment because of one ethos: no one gets left behind. No one. Confident that the nation will move mountains to save them, Israeli soldiers fight like lions. That foundational principle is showing some severe cracks these days.
As of Tuesday morning in Israel, there is lots of “talk” but no official confirmation from the government regarding the agreement terms. But informed speculation holds that there will be an immediate ceasefire. Within days of signing, three hostages will be released. Each of the following six weeks will bring the release of small groups, totalling 33 hostages for the first phase. Negotiation of the release of men of “military age” — which to Hamas means anyone 50 and under — will be deferred until day 16 of the first stage. The return of all hostages — living and in body bags — should be completed within three months. Humanitarian cases and men who are under 50 but ill will be exceptions.
Late breaking reports on Tuesday evening in Israel state that the first group will include children. Speculation is high that it may be Shiri Bibas and her children, Ariel and Kfir, now five and two. Hamas told their hostage father — and videoed the exchange — that they had been killed in an Israeli air strike. This has never been verified.
In return, Israel will release thousands of terrorists, many who have been convicted over the years of horrific crimes. None of the elite Hamas forces captured by Israel on October 7 will be released.
So. We wait. For the men in the rooms to finish and sign.
Vivian Bercovici is a former Canadian ambassador to Israel and the founder of the State of Tel Aviv.