Parti Quebecois is on the rise again in Quebec, leading in most polls by 12 to 15 points.
This is mostly due to the unpopularity of the current Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) government under Premier Francois Legault, plus the voting public’s general distaste for incumbents, rather than any strong desire among Quebecers for their province’s independence from Canada.
The next provincial election is more than a year and a half away. Yet the fact that PQ Leader Paul St.-Pierre Plamondon has promised another sovereignty referendum, in the first term of any PQ government, has set the Canadian establishment atwitter.
The attitude in genteel salons in Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal is that the rest of Canada must ready itself. We must be prepared to do all we can to show Quebecers how much we love and appreciate them and how much we desire them to stay.
If a separatist referendum is held, Canadians outside Quebec must demonstrate their commitment to making the nation work for Quebec.
Remember the mass rally in Montreal just a few days before the 1995 referendum? We will need another one of those. Tens of thousands of Canadians travelled to Quebec (with the help of deeply discounted flights from Air Canada or cheap intercity bus tickets) and marched through the centre of town chanting their passion for Quebec and unfurling banners proclaiming their devotion.
It was officially known as the Unity Rally but unofficially called the Love In. Many commentators and researchers credited the gathering with tipping the vote ever so slightly towards the “Non” side — the side in favour of Quebec remaining in Canada.
If another vote is held in Quebec on whether to stay or go, not only will I not rally (just as I didn’t rally 30 years ago), but I will go down to the Confederation Dock and wave goodbye with my hanky as Quebec sails away.
If Quebec is not satisfied with dominating national policy for the last 60 years, since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s father was prime minister. If it’s not content with raking in nearly half of the $26.2 billion in annual equalization payments Ottawa extracts from “have” provinces to give to “have nots.” If it can’t be happy with having one of its native sons in the prime minister’s job more than half the time (despite having less than a quarter of Canada’s population). And if it’s not enough to keep demanding oil and gas money from the West to pay for its lavish social programs, while at the same time blocking pipelines and supporting the eco-fanatic efforts of the Trudeau Liberals to shut down the energy sector. Then no deal will satisfy Quebec.
It’s better just to let it go, or at least to lay this all on the line before any future referendum so Quebec voters have a clearer idea of what independence would truly cost them.
One of the big flaws in the 1995 referendum was the question asked. Rather than being a simple “Separation: Oui or Non,” it implied Quebec could become sovereign while also counting on the same billions of federal subsidies to continue flowing from Canada.
Sorry folks, you’d have to take your share of the national debt and plan for your annual payments from the rest of Canada to fall to a trickle.
My preference would be for Quebec to stay. Breaking up is always difficult. Who gets the wedding china? Who takes over the mortgage?
But I will not grovel, plead or open the federal treasury to convince Quebec to stay. I won’t even lift a finger. If Quebecers won’t play well with the other provinces, it would be better for everyone if they just left.
This would be a divorce settlement, not a hostage negotiation.