In the shortest political honeymoon in history, it’s clear the electorate is suffering from a huge dose of buyers’ remorse and if an election were held tomorrow voters would kick Starmer out big time and potentially replace him with a combo from the Right of Reform and the Tories.
I can say this with some certainty after the publication of the Sunday Times mega poll, which looked at the voting intentions of 11,000 voters. But here’s the rub: would Badenoch and Farage break bread together? It’s what the voters want, but is it what the leaders want?
Let’s look at the numbers that make a pre-General Election merger on the Right so compelling. The collapse of Labour is astonishing. Six months ago, they won 411 seats, up 209 seats, but the Sunday Times survey shows they would lose 155 of the seats right now.
Simply incredible. The Conservatives, which lost 244 seats in the General Election, partially recovered, gaining 87 seats, but the real winner is Reform, which goes from five seats to 71.
My bet is that Farage would do a lot better than that come the day as, just like Trump in the United States, he would have a surge of support in the secrecy of the ballot box.
Kemi Badenoch should team up with Nigel Farage, writes Kelvin MacKenzie
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Perhaps, and this is where I see danger, the biggest surprise is that the Lib Dims only lost six seats, down to 66. In this poll, if they formed a Lib-Lab pact after an election it could keep Starmer in power.
Because Labour’s win was so tight in a number of constituencies, the good news is that in this survey, the following Cabinet ministers would lose their seats: Rayner, Miliband, Healey, Phillipson, Reynolds and Streeting.
Almost certainly to follow them would be McFadden and Nandy. So sad.
The other fascinating nugget to emerge is that the Red Wall seats (all of which went Labour having gone Tory under Boris) would all change once again, but none to the Conservatives, all to Reform.
That tells me there are plenty of Labour voters, especially in the North, who would give Farage a chance.So, there’s plenty to play for with a Farage-Badenoch get-together of some kind, but will it happen?
The signs are not good. I think Badenoch misplayed her hand when she attacked Reform by saying they had faked their party membership numbers in order to pass the Tories. Why did she bother? A clear error.
Her irritability conquered her political judgment. Not a good sign for the years ahead.
When you’re in business, you never mention the competitor if you are No. 1. If you are No.2, be as critical of your rival as you like of the market leader, working on the assumption all publicity is good publicity.
The Tories are still considered No. 1 on the Right, but following the Badenoch blast, Farage told the Times the number of voters signing up to be party members has increased to 6,000 a day. I believe him. It’s incumbent on Badenoch to dial down the Reform attacks.
It’s not clear to me that she will survive until the next General Election. She won’t do well in the county council elections in May ( I expect Farage to do surprisingly well), and there will be plenty of pressure on her to have policies which will connect with ordinary people.
Those kinds of populist policies are not simply hanging off trees. Farage will get a lot of energy from his connections in the United States.
Where will Badenoch get her ideas from? Surely not Michael Gove, who is in semi-retirement at The Spectator. I would urge Badenoch to go out of her way to befriend Farage. As I say, it’s what the voter wants. And if you ignore the voter I can assure her she will pay a very high price.