Patrick Mahomes proved last week that he can play just fine with a high ankle sprain as he boosted his November/December record to 46-10 with an eight-point win over the Texans, and this week he’ll have Hollywood Brown with a game under his belt against a 20th-ranked pass defence. However, a big part of why the Steelers have lost two in a row has been the absence of George Pickens, a valuable deep threat who stretches the field and makes life easier for Russell Wilson, and Pickens is now trending toward a Christmas Day return. Here’s the other thing: Mike Tomlin has taken a couple of consecutive hits to his tremendous ATS record (62-33-3) as an underdog, and I can’t see it becoming three in a row, especially since Tomlin is 21-6 ATS as a home ‘dog. Chiefs could win with the motivation of clinching the No. 1 seed, but the Steelers are in a fight for first place and T.J. Watt will hound Mahomes as they at least keep things close.
Chiefs 21, Steelers 20
Dan Bilicki: Kansas City -2.5
The Texans’ run game has stalled recently. Joe Mixon has only one 100-plus yard game in his last four and has averaged 34 yards in the other three. That trend should continue against a No. 1-ranked Baltimore run defence that has allowed an average of 83.1 ground yards per game. C.J. Stroud is more than capable of exploiting the Ravens’ 31st-ranked pass defence, but he’ll also be without Tank Dell, so Nico Collins will see extra coverage. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry had a 162-yard outing against a Steelers team that is better against the run than the Texans and, while Houston is locked into the No. 4 seed, the Ravens will know whether a win moves them ahead of the Steelers or they have to keep pace in the race for the AFC North title.
Ravens 27, Texans 21
Dan Bilicki: Baltimore -5.5
Under interim head coach Thomas Brown the Bears have dropped three straight by an average of 20 points, and that number likely would have been higher had the Lions not taken their foot off the pedal when leading Chicago by 20 late in the third quarter last week. Expect them to lose their 10th in a row on Boxing Day, but the Seahawks have surrendered 57 points while losing two in a row to NFC North teams and with the possibility of them lightening the load for the banged-up Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker in preparation for next week’s game against the Rams — and with Caleb Williams coming off a 334-yard passing game against Detroit — the Bears sneak in the back door and cover for the first time during their horrendous slump.
Seahawks 27, Bears 24
Dan Bilicki: Seahawks -3.5
Season records:
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