Justin Trudeau is the captain of a battered old tub caught in a tsunami. There’s a hole in the hull, the water’s rising, half the vessel is beneath the surface and there’s an ominous sound suggesting it’s about to break in two. The lifeboats are out and the crew is fleeing.
A call arrives in the frantic radio room.
“Where’s your captain?” asks a voice.
“He’s locked in a room next to the bridge.”
“What’s he doing there?”
“Reflecting on his future.”
Liberal party members of Parliament spent the Christmas weekend reflecting on the prime minister’s future as well, and largely concluded there isn’t one. The usually loyal Chandra Arya conceded “there is no alternative but to have the leadership change now.” Quebec MP Anthony Housefather told the CBC the “vast majority” of caucus believe Trudeau should resign. More than 50 of Ontario’s 75-member Liberal caucus agreed in a mass call that Trudeau has to go and assigned caucus chair Michael Coteau to give the prime minister the message.
Leaks from within the defensive circle of Trudeau confidantes suggest he has no plan to step aside during the holidays, while Trudeau himself insists on pretending there’s nothing to see here.
In October, he declared his fractious forces remained “strong and united,” even as he exited a tense gathering focused on pressing for his departure. The day after Chrystia Freeland resigned as finance minister and deputy prime minister, breaking his world apart, he attended a Christmas bash, put on a determined smile and asserted: ”Like most families, sometimes we have fights during the holidays. But like most families, we find our way through it.”
What’s true in that statement is that Liberals want, and are desperately seeking, a way out of their crisis, preferably a miracle cure that somehow allows them to remain in power despite an electorate desperate for them to go. What’s not obvious is that their concern centres on what’s good for the country rather than what’s desirable for themselves.
The overwhelming impression from what’s known of their discussions is that personal survival is an overriding concern. Should Trudeau step down immediately, or hang on until forced out by an opposition revolt? Once the deed is done, should there be an immediate election or a leadership contest first? Would it be better to face potential decimation with Trudeau at the helm, or could some ambitious successor be sent out to take the fall in his place?
Eddie Goldenberg, chief of staff and eminence grise to former prime minister Jean Chretien, says Trudeau should quit now, let the caucus pick a successor and hold off on a permanent replacement until after an election the Liberals seem certain to lose badly. Goldenberg sugars the pill by arguing Trudeau could then claim to be undefeated — having jumped before he was pushed — and could busy himself in “explaining to Quebecers the benefits of being part of Canada” should another Quebec independence referendum occur.
The notion of Trudeau as Captain Canada may be a stretch — his support in his own Montreal riding is down to 33 per cent — but Goldenberg’s scenario has the advantage of calling for an immediate election. That would put the power to choose who runs the country in the hands of Canadians, where it belongs.
Not all Liberals are eager to give voters that chance. Trudeau could opt to request Parliament be prorogued, delaying an election until some time further down the road in the faint hope something comes along to improve Liberal fortunes. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre sought to prevent that possibility on Friday, announcing he’d write Governor-General Mary Simon “asking her to urgently reconvene Parliament and require a non-confidence vote,” that all three main opposition parties say they will support.
An argument immediately sprang up over Simon’s options should Trudeau request a prorogation, raising the spectre of a constitutional debate that is exactly what the country doesn’t need at a time it faces crises on several fronts and a government in disarray. What Canada does need is certainty, and the only means of assuring that is an election.
That at least should be obvious even to the most nakedly partisan members of the Liberal caucus. Justin Trudeau can’t save anyone’s bacon. His credibility, whatever it might have been, is shot. The vast majority of the country has made clear it wants a change. Canada needs strong leadership, and it won’t get it from a fractured, demoralized, rudderless government under an exhausted leadership.
Delay can only hurt the country by prolonging the uncertainty and consequent weakness. There’s little to be gained: New Democrats, Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois have pledged a non-confidence vote at the earliest opportunity, meaning a limited respite at best. Whether it’s Trudeau or a replacement who faces the inevitable is largely immaterial, though there’s a strong case to be made that, having led them to the moment, it’s his place to face the reckoning. He’s repeatedly said it’s his intention to try for a fourth straight victory. One reason supporters gave for sticking by him during October’s uprising was the absence of a credible replacement. And no matter who led the next campaign they’d be running on Trudeau’s record. There’d be no time to craft a viable new platform, and Kamala Harris demonstrated the difficulties of defending the past while posing as the future in her loss to Donald Trump in November.
Members of Parliament aren’t elected to do what pleases the leader, to demonstrate their all-encompassing loyalty to the party or to safeguard their own interests or those of their colleagues. Their job is to represent the views of their constituents, and to defend and promote the interests of Canada. Those interests now lie overwhelmingly in selecting a government able to confront an array of challenges threatening serious consequences for the country. The current regime has disqualified itself; something strong and new, with a clear mandate and public approval is essential.
The Liberals have only one choice, and that’s to immediately clear the path to an election. Put their plan to the people, and let the people decide.
National Post