The Calgary Flames recent 4-3 victory over the Nashville Predators snapped a 25-game streak where the team scored three goals or less per game — a franchise record.
It was only a spate of otherworldly goaltending from Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar that prevented Calgary from sinking to the bottom of the league during that stretch.
No one expected this roster to be a high-powered offensive machine this season, but the past two months represent an unprecedented dry spell. Even for a club lacking in high-end talent.
Let’s peek at some of the numbers beneath the hood of Calgary’s scoring woes to better understand why the team is so snake-bitten. And whether it will last or not.
The problem with even strength
Calgary’s scoring problems are almost entirely at 5-on-5 this year. Heading into Tuesday, their production on the power play so far is middle of the road, with their 17 PP goals putting them 14th in the league.
But the Flames can’t seem to buy a goal at even strength. Their 50 even-strength goals tie them at 28th in the league with the Chicago Blackhawks. If we look at their goals-per-hour rate, they remain near the bottom of the (1.96/60). Only Chicago, Anaheim, Detroit, and Nashville are worse.
Interestingly, the Flames’ shot rate at 5-on-5 is more than respectable. Only six teams in the league put more shots at the net per hour than Calgary so far. But their expected goals rate is paradoxically abysmal — 2.27/60 (seventh last).
So the team is taking a lot of shots at ES, but not a lot of quality shots. This isn’t too surprising given Calgary is not poised to be a contender this year.
However, you’ll notice a discrepancy between the Flames’ actual goal rate and expected goal rate at even strength — 1.96 vs 2.27. So they’re even underperforming their less-than-average expected goal rate so far.
Meaning that Calgary’s finishing at a below-average rate, even on the chances they do get. In fact, only three teams have a worse shooting percentage on their high-danger chances so far (14.9%).
The snakebite list
Almost no one on the Flames is currently excelling in terms of scoring this year, but there are a handful of guys who are particularly snakebitten. A turnaround in their fortunes would no doubt improve the club’s potency at even strength.
Andrei Kuzmenko
The former 30+ goal scorer has just one marker on the board so far and that came on the PP. His shooting percentage for 20 ES shots is a flat zero.
Last year, Kuzmenko’s expected goal percentage for all unblocked shots at the net was 7.6. His shooting percentage as a Flame? 21.6%. This year, his expected goal percentage is 7.5%. So he’s getting roughly the same looks as last year, but utterly failing to score on them.
Perhaps most concerning for the player and the team, however, is his shot rate. Last year he was putting 6.7 shots/60 on net at even strength. This year he has sunk to 3.4, a number you’d typically expect of a defensive defenceman. In fact, every defender on the club currently gets shots on net at a higher rate than Kuzmenko.
So not only is he not finishing his chances, his shot rate has been cut in half. Kuzmenko has proven he can score in this league before, but he’ll have to get over the yips and actually start shooting if he wants to break out of this cold snap.
Yegor Sharangovich
Sharangovich’s 30-goal turn last year was built on a 17.2% SH%. This year, he’s operating at a third of that efficiency (5.1%).
Outside of Kuzmenko, Sharagovich’s shooting percentage decline is the steepest on the team.
A fast skater with a deadly release, Sharangovich has the tools to score at well above expected rates. His chance rates between last year and this year show very little variance. He’s just … not scoring on his shots right now.
Martin Pospisil
Very little has gone right for Pospisil this season as well. He has managed just one goal and six points at 5-on-5 so far, despite frequently playing in the Flames’ top-6 rotation.
Unlike Kuzmenko, Pospisil is shooting at a rate of about 5.7 per hour, but they are of poorer quality (expected shooting percentage of about 5.5% for all shots at the net so far). His shooting percentage is a miserable 2.8%, meaning he’s not getting great looks but he’s still underperforming on the looks he gets.
Pospisil isn’t a high-end offensive talent like Kuzmenko, but his shooting percentage was at least a more respectable 7.1% last year as a rookie.
Blake Coleman
After his career season of 30 goals last year, it’s not a major surprise to see Coleman slide back this year. His shooting percentage at ES is just 5.1% so far, less than half of the 11% he managed at 5on5 in 2023-24.
In fact, only five regular Flames skaters boast an ES SH% above 10% this season — Justin Kirkland (22.2%), Jonathan Huberdeau (22.5%), Kevin Rooney (14.3%), Connor Zary (11.6%), and Matthew Coronato (11.3%). And two of those players are there because they’ve only taken nine (Kirkland) and 14 (Rooney) shots at even strength.
Ironically, Huberdeau has almost the exact same expected shooting percentage as Kuzmenko (7.5%), but the two players sit at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to finishing.
While the above list is the few guys scoring well under expected, most of the roster is either at or below par when it comes to matching their goals to their expected goals. And even after a few more three-goal games under their belts, Calgary’s even strength SH% as a team now hovers at 7.1, good for 31st in the league.
Last year, roughly the same roster operated at 8.4% at ES (20th). After the trade deadline, depleted by the sell-off, they scored on 7.95% of their shots. So, a little worse, but not as bad as bad this year.
In summation
Calgary’s scoring woes are almost all due to their lackluster finishing at even strength.
They take a lot of shots at 5-on-5, but struggle to efficiently turn them into quality chances.
They also struggle to turn those chances into goals, with most of the team trailing their expected goal rates and/or past performance. Some of them by a significant margin. Many of the Flames scorers from last year have seen their SH% plummet to date.
All of this to say Calgary probably isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but their struggles are not entirely indicative of the talent on the team either.
We should expect them to improve somewhat in the second half as players like Kuzmenko, Sharangovich, Pospisil, and Coleman positively regress toward their talent level.