The UK hasn’t seen a proper, widespread White Christmas in almost 15 years, since December 2010 in fact, but will this year finally be the year that snow will fall on December 25? The Met Office is running sophisticated computer models to figure it out.
With just two weeks to go until the big day, Tuesday, December 10, was the first day this year that weather forecast maps extended to show predicted forecasts for Christmas Day. And it caused a stir of excitement, as some early data suggested icy temperatures and flurries of snow.
However, experts at the Met Office insist it is still too soon to confidently say whether snow will fall in a fortnight’s time, and that an accurate forecast on this is not likely to be given until five days beforehand.
In a YouTube video published on Tuesday, meteorologist Aidan McGivern said: “Certainly, there are no signs of a strong signal for a white Christmas. The computer models are run lots and lots of times, and then we can pick out where areas where they are agreeing, and areas where they’re disagreeing, and then we can talk about the most likely weather patterns.
“Some weather patterns are starting to appear in the computer model output and give a small sense of flavour of what we might expect for the week of Christmas.
“One commonly occurring theme is for higher pressure to the south, lower pressure towards Iceland, and this strong westerly airflow. That higher pressure is the common theme in most of the computer model projections.”
Meanwhile, looking at the long-term forecast posted on the Met Office website, predictions for up to December 24 are for “lengthier drier spells” in the south although the forecast adds: “Even here it is still likely to be unsettled and breezy at times. Temperatures will vary around average, with oscillations between colder and milder interludes.”
And from December 25 until January 8, the Met Office predicts: “Mainly unsettled conditions appear likely for most, with spells of wind and rain followed by showers affecting most areas but especially towards the northwest of the UK.
“Some sleet and snow is also likely at times, especially on high ground in the north. However, there are also some signs that more settled conditions are possible at times, these perhaps most likely across the south late in December or into early January.
“Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above average overall, but with any more settled interludes bringing a risk of frost and fog.”
The Met Office will declare a white Christmas if just one snowflake is observed to fall anywhere in the UK within 24 hours of December 25.
Traditionally, just one location – the Met Office building in London – was used to record snowfall and declare a white Christmas.
However, with the increase in betting on where will see a white Christmas, the number of locations have increased, and can now include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester, and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
This year, Ladbrokes is offering odds of 1⁄3 for snow to fall on Christmas Day in any part of the UK, reports the Mirror. Spokesperson Alex Apati, for the betting site, stated: “It’s looking increasingly likely we’ll be waking up to the white stuff on Christmas Day, with a record-breaking cold December also on the cards.”
The bookmaker is also offering 2/1 odds for this December to be the coldest on record, given the generally icy outlook for the month.