Now that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has finally announced she will deliver her fall economic statement on Dec. 16, it raises the question of how much of our money are the Liberals prepared to spend in a desperate bid to win the next federal election?
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One example is the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s two-month GST holiday on some goods that looks like it was written on the back of a napkin, given ongoing confusion for retailers about what’s included and what isn’t in the program that starts Dec.14 and runs until Feb. 15.
Parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux told Bloomberg News last month he expects the Trudeau government has already blown past its own “fiscal anchor” of a $40-billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year; Freeland predicted that in her April budget.
Giroux predicted the deficit would be $46.8 billion.
A Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists from Canada’s six largest money leaders, released Monday, found 13 agreed with Giroux that the Trudeau government will not hit its deficit target.
Giroux was also critical of the Trudeau government waiting so late in the year to present its fall economic statement — in this case one day before Parliament adjourns for its winter holiday break.
He said this “goes against fiscal transparency and accountability” because MPs have to approve hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending without knowing the state of the country’s finances.
He recommended Sept. 30 as the deadline for releasing the fall economic statement every year.
Freeland also promised in her April budget to keep Canada’s debt-to-Gross Domestic Product ratio — an indication of the country’s overall economic health — on a declining path every year; we’ll see if she adheres to that on Dec. 16.
“Unfortunately, this government has consistently failed to meet its fiscal targets and lacks a coherent strategy to foster private investment,” Robert Asselin, senior vice-president of the Business Council of Canada, who served as former finance minister Bill Morneau’s budget director, told The Canadian Press.
“The government must use the Dec. 16 fall economic statement to prioritize effectively and adopt greater fiscal discipline.”
The bad news is that if past practice is the best indicator of future performance, when it comes to the Trudeau government, don’t hold your breath.