The Edmonton Oilers are exactly two months into the NHL season and as “coincidence” has it, they’ve played exactly a third of their games. 27 of 82, close enough for jazz.
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For the second autumn in a row it has taken the Oilers about that long to get their collective heads above water after a poor start. This time around the hole wasn’t quite so deep — three straight one-sided losses on home ice to start out, or if you prefer 2-4-1 after 7 games compared to last year’s 2-9-1 after 12. But to this point there have been no 8-game winning streaks either, such as the one Edmonton manufactured from Games 19-26 in 2023-24. Just a steady diet of more winning that losing. It’s been 13 games since Edmonton lost 2 straight in regulation, and 8 since they dropped 2 straight in any manner.
Consider the following trends since that 2-4-1 start:
- Last 20 games: 13-6-1 = .675 | 68 GF, 52 GA = 57% goal share
- Last 12 games: 8-3-1 = .708 | 42 GF, 31 GA = 58% goal share
- Last 6 games: 5-1-0 = .833 | 24 GF, 12 GA = 67% goal share
That last span stands out. What have the Oilers been doing better?
Improved netminding
Stu Skinner has taken more than his share of grief in Oil Country to this point, and not without (de)merit. Lately, though, Edmonton’s #1 stopper has found his form.
It’s instructive to subdivide the first third of Edmonton’s season into three smaller sets of 9 games each. So far the division of the workload has been extremely regular, even as the performance has not, Skinner’s in particular.
Looking specifically at starts (backup Calvin Pickard came on in relief in the season opener; since then neither guy has gotten The Hook), we see Skinner getting 6 of 9 starts in each set, Pickard 3.
Indeed, if we further divide by 3 we find that in each group of 3 games from #1-3 through #25-27, Skinner has started 2, Pickard 1. Regular as rain, and a clear strategy by coach Kris Knoblauch.
The #2 man has been very reliable in his ~weekly appearances, which occurred in Games # 2, 5, 9, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, and 26, mostly against second-tier opponents: Chicago, Detroit, Utah, 3 vs. Nashville. He had a poor first outing allowing 5 goals against the Blackhawks, but since then has limited all 8 of his opponents to 3 goals or fewer, which falls in the general category of “giving his team a chance to win”. And win the Oilers have, 2 of every 3 games Pickard has started. Similarly, he has delivered a Quality Start in 2 of each 3. Call him Steady Eddy.
Skinner has seen by far the lion’s share of the stronger opponents and primary rivals: Winnipeg, Dallas, Carolina, Vancouver, Toronto, Colorado, 2 vs. Calgary, 2 vs. Vegas. His performance has been all over the map, starting with getting blown out of the net by the Jets in the opener. Overall, he was mediocre in his first 6 starts, less than that in the next 6, but stellar in the most recent 6 in which he has delivered 5 Quality Starts of his 10 on the season.
Best of all has been his performance during the team’s most recent 5-1-0 run, in which he has allowed just 6 goals in 4 starts (.945 Sv%), including a trio of convincing wins on Hockey Night in Canada over the Rangers, Avalanche and Blues. Marbled in there was a 1-0 defeat in Vegas, Edmonton’s only loss in the 6 games.
Skinner delivered perhaps his best game to date in his club’s most recent contest against St. Louis. His good outlet feed started an amazing SIX-WAY passing play (Skinner to Perry to Kulak to Draisaitl to Brown to Draisaitl to Nurse to Perry) on the first goal of the game. He was the only Oiler all night to draw a penalty, absorbing a charge that led to the powerplay goal that stood up as the game winner. And in his primary function he turned aside 29 of 31 shots including a number of difficult stops, ultimately and deservedly getting named the game’s first star.
In the process he outplayed Team Canada selection Jordan Binnington who faced 10 fewer shots than did Skinner but allowed twice as many goals. By one definition, it was the first time this season that the Oilers have “goalied” their opponent, given it was just the third time that Edmonton has been outshot, with both prior occurrences being losses.
Return to form of Darnell Nurse
The big rearguard with the bigger contract had a very slow start to the 2024-25 campaign. It was announced before camp that he would not be participating in contact drills, and he didn’t play in a tune-up game until the very end of the preseason.
When the games started to count for real points, Nurse was the poster boy for the slow-starting Oilers. Through 10 games he had produced just 0-3-3 with a nasty dash-6 plus/minus rating and was getting absolutely crushed on the penalty kill as well.
But that’s when his game started to turn. By eye he began to play with more authority, finishing checks and winning battles, moving the puck more sharply and joining the play judiciously without taking unnecessary risks to do so. By stat, well, he’s turned things around completely. In 14 games since (he missed 3 after a scary blow to the head), he’s produced on the offensive front with 3-5-8, with an impressive +12 over that span. Indeed, opposing teams only scored twice at 5v5 during the 260 minutes Nurse has played at the discipline since Oct 31.
While that rate of goal suppression is clearly unsustainable (.984 save percentage!), it seems like more than a mirage that the big blueliner has discovered his A game. In the process he has cut way down on the penalties that used to be a-feature-not-a-bug of his hard-edged game. He’s incurred just 4 minors so far, just 1 every 6 games, essentially half of his historical rate. (In his four career seasons of 80+ GP which includes the last two campaigns, he been tagged for 26, 26, 26 and 27 minors.) He’s still a force to be reckoned with when necessary, twice shedding the mitts to come to the aid of a felled teammate, and is the squad’s #1 policeman in the absence of the injured Evander Kane.
By eye he’s playing a more contained, mature game. Case in point: the beautiful shot-pass that Corey Perry tipped home to open the scoring on Saturday night. Not the first of those I’ve noticed lately, from a man with a past history of trying to beat goalies clean with 45-foot wrist shots.
Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey rely on this player to mind the store during much of the time Connor McDavid is sitting on the bench. With defence mates Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard fixtures on a five-man unit with #97 and two top wingers, Nurse so far has played just 60 of his 376 minutes at 5v5 with McDavid, who has enjoyed his own resurgence from a slow-ish start. That makes Nurse’s recent outscoring feats in largely distinct ice time all the more impressive.
Oil fans have to expect some of that outscoring to level out by the simple law of averages a.k.a. regression to the mean, but Nurse’s improved play these past several weeks has to be considered a major up arrow for the team’s fortunes.
Secondary scoring
Just a few days ago the Oilers reached the 25-game mark with exactly two forwards who had scored as many as five goals on the season, namely You Know Who and You Know Too. Stunningly, all of their other attackers were clustered at 4 or fewer.
That changed in Game 26 when Zach Hyman returned from an injury which cost him 6 games, and likely crimped his style for quite a few more. He scored his fourth of the season in the first period, then became the first Oilers winger to hit the magical five-goal plateau in the second. Within minutes, Jeff Skinner had tallied his own fifth goal and the Oilers were off and running to a 6-3 win.
Next game, Corey Perry opened the scoring with his fifth. Then Hyman struck again in the middle frame to become the first winger to six.
Needless to say, these are not good totals. At the 27-game mark, it takes 7 goals to be on pace for 20 on the season. The Oilers have their two main men, Leon Draisaitl with 19 tallies (on pace for 58) and Connor McDavid with 13 (on pace for 39). Finally, though, some of the expected secondary scorers are starting to find the range:
- Hyman has doubled his total in just 2 games since his return.
- J. Skinner has emerged from a long period of fallow to score 4 points in his last 4 games.
- Adam Henrique has emerged from the fog of just 2 points in his first 17 games to collect 1-6-7 over his past 10, posting an impressive +7 over that span.
In particular, a reconstructed third line of Henrique, Skinner and Mattias Janmark has impressed. Henrique and Janmark have delivered strong two-way hockey, while Skinner has added an offensive touch that has largely eluded hard-working but snakebitten Connor Brown. To these eyes it’s been the best fit so far for Skinner, a ten-time 20-goal scorer who is something of an adventure on the defensive side of the puck but whose offence is vital.
Overall, the forwards not named Draisaitl or McDavid have produced at the following rate:
- First 9 games: 6-12-18
- Next 9 games: 12-23-35
- Last 9 games: 14-24-38
The Edmonton Oilers remain a work in progress, but surely progress is being made. On multiple fronts, and in all three zones.
- Stu Skinner, Darnell Nurse, and secondary scoring (represented by Corey Perry) all put in an appearance in this superb Oilers goal vs. the Blues.
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