While the homicide rate in the U.S. markedly exceeds Canada’s, a new study by Lakehead University economics professor Livio Di Matteo, done for the Fraser Institute, says both property crime rates and overall violent crime rates are now higher in Canada than in the U.S.
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“The idea that Canada is a much safer society than the United States is not supported by the data as rates of property and violent crime in Canada are now higher than south of the border,” Di Matteo concludes in the first chapter of his upcoming study, Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the United States: An Introduction.
“After a long period of declining crime rates in both Canada and the United States since the 1990s, recent years have seen new disquiet even though overall, crime rates remain at relatively historic lows.
“Crime rates in Canada … are nevertheless rising and in some cases are higher than in the U.S., which should concern Canadians.”
In Canada, Di Matteo says, the homicide rate has climbed from 1.5 murders per 100,000 population in 2014 to 2.3 murders per 100,000 in 2022 — the latest available year of comparable statistics — a 53.4% increase.
By comparison, the homicide rate in the U.S. was well over double that at 5.8 murders per 100,000 in 2022, a 49.4% increase since 2014.
Di Matteo argues that focusing solely on homicide rates (and, one might add, the fact Canada does not have a history of mass shootings comparable to the U.S.) has often left Canadians “comfortably self-assured that (Canada) is a peaceable kingdom marked by less crime” than the U.S., consistent with our national identity of “peace, order and good government” compared to its American counterpart of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
But when it comes to property crimes (burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft, etc.), Di Matteo’s study says, Canada’s 2,491 crimes per 100,000 in 2022– a 7% increase from 2014 — was 27.5% higher than the 1,954.4 crimes per 100,000 recorded in the U.S. in 2022, which has decreased by 24.1% since 2014.
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Similarly, the overall violent crime rate in Canada including murder, robbery and assault with a weapon — adjusted for differences in how the two countries define violent crime — Di Matteo says, shows Canada’s rate of 434.1 crimes per 100,000 in 2022, a 43.8% increase from 2014, has in recent years surpassed the U.S. violent crime rate of 380.7 crimes per 100,000 in 2022 — a 5.3% increase since 2014 — by 14%.
Beyond the figures cited in Di Matteo’s study, it’s clear that a growing number of Canadians are concerned about crime, regardless of comparisons to what is happening in the U.S. and despite assurances from governments, criminologists, criminal lawyers and others that crime in Canada is at historic lows compared to previous decades.
An Ipsos public opinion survey of 1,142 adult Torontonians from Aug. 28 to Sept. 18 commissioned by the city found that 40% of respondents do not feel safe living in Toronto and identified crime as the third most important issue facing the city after housing and public transit.
A 2022 national opinion survey by Angus Reid Institute of 5,014 Canadian adults from Sept. 19 to Sept. 22 found 60% believed crime in their community had increased over the previous five years, although the number who said they had been victims of crime over the previous two years, at 13%, was the same as in 2018.