Blinkered partisanship often blinds people to the fact that two things can be true at once.
You can be critical of the Liberal government’s drug and immigration policies and still believe that Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on America’s closest ally and second-largest trading partner is shameful.
The stakes for Canada couldn’t be higher. Trump could be bluffing, but the currency markets were spooked enough to send the Canadian dollar to a four and a half year low. Economist Trevor Tombe estimated that 25-per-cent across-the-board tariffs would send the country into recession.
To his credit, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called Trump’s menacing statement “unjustified” and “unfair.” It’s a smart political move: when Trump, as president in 2018, actually followed through with a 25-per-cent tariff on steel on national security grounds, 80 per cent of Canadians opposed his position and backed the Trudeau government’s retaliatory levies. Most Canadians still see this country as the proud nation that fought alongside the Americans in Flanders, the Scheldt, Sicily, Normandy, Korea and Afghanistan —and they don’t like being threatened.
But the only response possible with the arch-protectionist who is poised to re-enter the White House is to be civil, positive, flexible and emphatic that Canada will defend itself if necessary.
At the same time, Ottawa has to acknowledge the U.S. has legitimate concerns on the drugs and migration crises that Trump was elected on — issues four out of five Americans believe are significant problems the current administration is handling badly.
It is clear to everyone that the Mexican border is a much bigger concern when it comes to the thousands of kilograms of fentanyl and millions of illegal migrants that have flooded across in recent years.
But to dismiss worries on the Canadian border smacks of “whataboutism.” The joint statement issued by Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland talked about border security being the government’s “highest priority” and noted the Canada Border Security Agency is working with American counterparts to disrupt fentanyl coming from China.
But it did not acknowledge that Canada has liberalized drug use: Health Canada granted British Columbia a three-year exemption from the Controlled Drug and Substances Act, allowing the province to decriminalize possession of hard drugs.
The statement also failed to recognize that Canada has a domestic fentanyl production problem, and that oversupply and falling prices mean drugs are now being exported over the border.
U.S. border officials seized 19.5 kilograms in drugs at the northern border last year (admittedly a drop in a very large vat, given they seized 9,500 kilograms total).
On the illegal migrant front, human smuggling has exploded across the Canada-U.S. border at the so-called Swanton Sector (the U.S. border patrol office that covers parts of Vermont, New York and New Hampshire).
U.S. officials intercepted 8,000 people (mainly Indian nationals) between June and August this year, which is four times the number from 2022. The surge of a problem that did not exist five years ago can be traced directly to Liberal immigration policies.
On his way into cabinet, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he talked with Trump last night and “laid out the facts” (presumably not those, I’ve just outlined).
“This is a relationship we know. It will take a certain amount of working on, and that’s what we’ll do,” he said, adding that he will meet with provincial premiers this week to discuss the challenge of the incoming administration.
The saving grace is that Trump’s opening salvo is probably just that: an early negotiating gambit.
His incoming commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, gave us a glimpse behind the curtain when he told MSNBC’s Squawk Box that Trump will use tariffs as a bargaining chip. “We should put tariffs on stuff we make and not put tariffs on stuff we don’t make,” he said.
Lutnick dismissed campaign talk of across-the-board levies. “When you’re running for office, you make broad statements so that people understand you. Tariffs are an amazing tool but he (Trump) understands you don’t tariff what you don’t make. If we don’t make it and you want to buy it, I don’t want to put the price up.”
LeBlanc and Freeland pointed out Canada is essential to U.S. domestic energy supply, with 60 per cent of U.S. crude imports originating here. Since Trump has promised the lowest-cost energy on earth, how could he deliver and impose a 25-per-cent tariff that would inevitably raise gas prices for Americans?
Canada has used this playbook before.
Six years ago, heavy lobbying with Republican members of Congress and business groups ended up putting pressure on the White House, after Canada imposed retaliatory measures on $16.6-billion worth of goods.
At the time, Canadian officials also mulled the idea of mobilizing the Canadian population behind a boycott of U.S. goods as a last resort.
Canada remains the No. 1 export destination for 30 U.S. states; we are not defenceless.
But Ottawa can’t just sit waiting to see whether Trump follows through on his menaces. He wants wins, and Canada should do what it can to help him get them.
Politico reported last week that Trump is looking to revive the Keystone XL pipeline, even though no companies are pushing to build it.
The federal government should make clear it will do whatever it can to help.
On immigration, Ottawa should take action to make sure temporary residents leave the country when their time is up.
It should also tighten laws on anyone involved in human trafficking.
And on defence, it should build on Minister Bill Blair’s comment that he’s ready to speed up the timeline to reach two per cent of GDP on defence spending before 2032. Poilievre pointed out the government could start by reversing the $1 billion in military cuts that have already been earmarked.
We know that Trump doesn’t much like or respect Trudeau or Freeland — he has said as much. Worse, he thinks Canada is a soft touch, and intimidating Trudeau sends a message to other leaders who might step out of line.
The president-elect acts like a schoolyard bully “pour encourager les autres,” just as he did after the G7 meeting in Charlevoix, Que., when he roughed up the prime minister ahead of his meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
But he is not insensitive to political pressure.
People should take a leaf from the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, which featured the words: “Don’t Panic” in large, friendly letters on its cover.
It’s the best advice that could be given to Canadians at this stage in the proceedings.
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