BEST BETS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-6) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-8)
LINE: Tampa Bay by 5.5
The Bucs dropped four straight before last week’s bye but they’re returning in a good spot here. Not only is Mike Evans expected to come off the injured list, but the Giants, who lost five straight heading into last week’s bye, have internal issues with players publicly disagreeing with the decision to bench Daniel Jones for Danny-I-mean-Tommy DeVito. Bucs coach Todd Bowles, an expert in defensive play calling, will blitz the bejesus out of DeVito, who struggled trying to operate under heat as a rookie last year.
TAKING: TAMPA BAY -5.5
Buccaneers 26, Giants 10
DALLAS COWBOYS (3-7) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (7-4)
LINE: Washington by 10.5
The Commanders squeaked out wins over the Bears and Giants before back-to-back losses against Pennsylvannia’s teams, but there won’t be any questions about Jayden Daniels’ rib injury after this one. The Cowboys, who have been crushed three times during their five-game losing streak, have scored just 16 points in Cooper Rush’s two starts, and now Dak Prescott’s replacement will go up against the league’s No. 5 ranked pass defence and a head coach who last season was the Dallas defensive coordinator. You gotta know Dan Quinn can’t wait for this one.
TAKING: WASHINGTON -10.5
Commanders 34, Cowboys 10
DENVER BRONCOS (6-5) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-8)
LINE: Denver by 5.5
Well, well what a Broncos-friendly line we have here. In just his fifth NFL start, Bo Nix threw for two TDs and ran for another as Denver won the first meeting this season 34-18, and he just keeps getting better with experience. Coming off the best start of his career, a 38-6 victory over Atlanta in which Nix had 307 passing yards and four TD tosses, Nix now faces a Raiders team that has given up an average of 31.3 points in six consecutive losses. The Raiders are also 25th in points scored and going against a defence that ranks third in yards allowed. They are also very injured.
TAKING: DENVER -5.5
Broncos 24, Raiders 13
and the rest ….
DETROIT LIONS (9-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-6)
LINE: Detroit by 7.5
The Super Bowl favourite Lions (FanDuel has Detroit at +350, Chiefs +500 and Bills +650) scored TDs on their first seven drives against the Jaguars in last week’s 52-6 blowout and have now trounced three AFC South opponents by a combined score of 130-49 in the last four weeks. They keep rolling at Lucas Oil Stadium, but the Colts have only lost one game by more than a single score and are trying to catch up to the Texans. Anthony Richardson, who is coming off the best game of his young career in a 28-27 win over the Jets, will keep this one close too.
TAKING: INDIANAPOLIS +7.5
Lions 28, Colts 21
TENNESSEE TITANS (2-8) at HOUSTON TEXANS (7-4)
LINE: Houston by 8.5
Injuries have played a hand in Tennessee dropping a slot to No. 2 in total yards allowed after back-to-back 10-point losses to the Chargers and Vikings and on Wednesday, of the 10 DNP’s at practice, seven were defenders. Five of the Texans wins have been by six points or less – and they did allow Cooper Rush to complete 32 passes for 354 yards on Monday – while C.J. Stroud was pedestrian-like (257 passing yards, no TDs, one pick) in Nico Collins return for Monday’s 34-10 pasting of the Cowboys. Stroud, Collins and Joe Mixon put it all together here, with the Houston ‘D’ keeping Will Levis off balance.
TAKING: HOUSTON -8.5
Texans 27, Titans 12
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-8) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-6)
LINE: Miami by 7.5
Despite throwing four picks in his last three games, Drake Maye has improved the Patriots, who haven’t come within nine of the Patriots in their last four visits to Hard Rock Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa has lost to the Bills by three then defeated the Rams and Raiders by eight and 15 points since returning, and Miami can’t afford a setback here if it hopes to get back into the wild-card race, but that’s a lot of points to give a divisional rival at this time of the year.
TAKING: NEW ENGLAND +7.5
Dolphins 28, Patriots 23
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (8-2) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-6)
LINE: Minnesota by 3.5
Under new OC Thomas Brown, the Bears came within a last-play blocked field goal of upsetting the Packers, and much of Chicago’s chain-moving came with a ground game that produced 179 yards – including 70 from Caleb Williams. Minnesota has the No. 1 run defence in the NFL, and Brian Flores blitzing could be problematic for the Bears, who allowed their QB to be sacked nine times by the Pats two weeks ago, but this is the Vikes’ third road game in a row and they’ve had their hands full with the Titans and Jaguars the last two.
TAKING: CHICAGO +3.5
Vikings 20, Bears 17
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-1) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-7)
Line: Kansas City by 11
The Chiefs haven’t beaten anyone by more than 10 points this season, but did you see the look on Patrick Mahomes face after the Bills handed K.C. its first loss since last Christmas? He looked like someone just told him there’s no Santa. The Panthers won two in a row before last week’s bye – and they may be getting WR Adam Thielen back as well as the NFL debut of top RB Jonathon Brooks – but holding the Saints to 22 and Giants to 17 doesn’t mean Carolina’s defence is no longer among the league’s worst.
TAKING: KANSAS CITY -11
Chiefs 30, Panthers 13
ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-4) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-5)
LINE: Seattle by 1
The Cardinals get no respect. After a rough start they have won five of their last six, including their last four in a row, and are rested coming off a bye. Kyle Murray has the third-best QB rating in the league. The Seahawks upset the Niners last week, but prior to that had lost five of six. Yup, I’m taking the home team because Murray’s will be dealing with some carpel tunnel after having an extra week with his video games.
TAKING: SEATTLE -1
Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-3)
LINE: Green Bay by 2.5
There are injury concerns on both sides, with Packers standout LB Edgerrin Cooper joining CB Jaire Alexander as a spectator at Thursday’s practice while the Niners are hoping DE Nick Bossa, LT Trent Williams and QB Brock Purdy are good to go. But resilient Niners need a victory and often get one at Lambeau, where they’ve won nine times in their 12 visits, and Jordan Love has thrown at least one interception in every game he’s played (11 in eight) this season. Expect a big day from Christian McCaffrey as well as the Fred Warner-led San Fran ‘D’.
TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO +2.5
Niners 23, Packers 21
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-2) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-5)
LINE: Philadelphia by 3
Great matchup between two of the better teams in the NFL (now that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both healthy) and while the Eagles defence ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed, Matthew Stafford will pick away at the outer shell, doing enough to keep it close. Admittedly, the fact Jalen Hurts is 9-15 ATS as a road favourite is influencing the decision here, and if I do bet the game it will be with hopes Saquon Barkley doesn’t show off his tremendous skills in this particular prime time showdown.
TAKING: LOS ANGELES +3
Eagles 24, Rams 23
BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-4) at LOS ANGLES CHARGERS (7-3)
LINE: Baltimore by 3
John Harbaugh will face brother Jim for the first time since Super Bowl XLVII in 2013 (in which John’s Ravens defeated Jim’s Niners 34-31) and it should be a dandy. While the Chargers have averaged 28.5 points over the past four weeks, this one will be decided by the defences. The home team has a league-best 14.5 points given up while the visitors are 26th in total yards allowed. The Chargers have also done a good job on mobile QBs, limiting Kyler Murray and Bo Nix to 17 and 16 points, and they also held the Ravens to 20 points last year, with Lamar Jackson running for just 39 yards.
TAKING: LOS ANGELES +3
Chargers 27, Ravens 21
BILICKI’S BETS
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