With a familiar face back in town on Monday, it’s worth taking another look at how the deal that sent him away.
The Toronto Raptors dealt Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers on Jan. 17 just weeks after trading OG Anunoby, effectively bringing the post championship era to a close. While the Anunoby blockbuster looked great from the start and has aged even better despite Immanuel Quickley’s bad luck with injuries so far this season (the team also got RJ Barrett, who continues to play the best basketball of his career and a draft pick that became intriguing rookie Jonathan Mogbo), the Siakam deal has fairly been posited as potentially one of the worst in franchise history. Not Vince Carter for nothing-level bad, but not fair value for a two-time All-NBA player.
The Raptors sold it as three first-round picks coming back, along with whatever they’d be able to move veteran Bruce Brown for, but were unable to trade Brown either by the trade deadline in February or in the off-season. He’s subsequently had knee surgery and is yet to suit up in 2024-25. The jury is out on what teams will be willing to pay for Brown should he re-establish his value. He was a key role player on the Denver Nuggets when that team won a title a couple of years ago, but mostly struggled as a Raptor, particularly after injuring his knee.
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One of the first-round picks was dealt to Utah for Canadian veteran Kelly Olynyk and former lottery pick Ochai Agbaji, which seemed like a reasonable decision. Though Olynyk has missed the first 14 games with a back issue, he’s still expected to be a key reserve and good locker room leader. Toronto inked him to an extension. But it’s Agbaji’s play that is making the Siakam trade look a bit better.
The 24-year-old wing has been one of the NBA’s most improved players. He’s tasked with guarding top offensive players every night, but has shot 52.2% from the field on offence, including 44.3% on three-point attempts. He’s hit a league-high 21 corner three-pointers, shooting 53.8% on those attempts and two-thirds of his shots in the restricted area, third-best on the team. It’s very early of course, but after playing his worst basketball post-trade last season, Agbaji has completely turned things around. He still has another cheap year on his rookie deal and the Raptors will be able to match any offer after that should he head to restricted free agency if not signed to a new deal.
The 2024 first-round pick acquired for Siakam that the Raptors kept landed them Ja’Kobe Walter. Walter has barely played due to a shoulder issue that was later re-aggravated, returning him to the sidelines, but the team is high on his potential.
Finally, the swing piece that could determine what kind of trade the Siakam deal ends up being for the Raptors is currently looking a lot more promising than it did last January. Back then Tyrese Haliburton looked like an ascending superstar, the Pacers were the NBA Cup runner-up, Siakam was looked at as the piece that could make them a contender in the watered down East. Meaning the final first-round pick heading to the Raptors, a 2026 selection (protected if it lands in the top 4 in either 2026 or 2027) looked like it would be a late one. But while Siakam has thrived and is off to his best shooting start yet ahead of Monday’s game, Halliburton has been banged up for months, the team’s depth has been tested by injuries (particularly up front) and the Pacers started just 5-7 before hosting Miami on Sunday. The draft two summers from now is a while away, but the Raptors have to feel a lot more excited about where the pick might land than they did at the time of the trade.
And that’s why though most star players get moved for a lot more than Siakam did, it’s still possible that in the end both teams end up OK with the move.
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SCOUTING THE PACERS
Indiana was averaging only 111.8 points per 100 possessions before Sunday’s game, just 16th in the NBA. That’s despite Siakam’s 46% three-point shooting (he’s a career 33% shooter). The drop-off from averaging 120.5 points per 100 in 2023-24 (behind only eventual champion Boston) largely comes down to Haliburton shockingly dropping to 40% shooting and just 28.7% from three and Canadian backcourt partner Andrew Nembhard faring even worse before getting hurt. Centre Myles Turner shooting about 10% worse than usual on his two point shots hasn’t helped either. Turner has had to play a lot more minutes with both of his backup options lost for the year.
@WolstatSun