Labour has been haemorrhaging support since the General Election after making controversial calls on Winter Fuel payments, farmers’ inheritance tax reliefs and a massive Employers’ NIC tax hike among others.
One national poll even put Sir Keir Starmer’s party two percentage points behind Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party, while several others found his personal popularity to have plummeted faster than any leader in modern history.
While much of Labour’s support has jumped ship to the Tories, there is another party hoovering up voters: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Reform are polling as much as 20 per cent nationally, roughly five to ten points behind Labour. While the Conservatives have been the main beneficiaries of this ebbing support- to the tune of 17 new councillors- Reform is playing its part as a thorn in Labour’s side well.
The party’s strong polling may not translate into seats given Westminster’s First Past the Post system, but there is not another General Election scheduled until 2029.
But, in Wales and Scotland’s devolved governments, elections are due in May 2026. They also use a different voting system that will translate Reform’s strong polling into seats.
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Their systems of proportional representation could see Reform winning as much as a quarter of seats available, particularly in Wales, making them the third biggest party in the Celtic Nation, larger than the Tories.
And Labour don’t look like they’ll be winning back much support in Wales after First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “Farmers should calm down a bit” yesterday.
Wales, a proud farming nation, has seen its rural community thrown into turmoil by Rachel Reeves’ changes to inheritance tax.
The Chancellor’s capping of inheritance tax relief for farmers will see many farms taxed out of existence when the farmer dies, damaging Britain’s food security and the fabric of our countryside.
Many of the nation’s farmers are set to demonstrate in London on November 19.