The Biden Administration’s leadership in the Middle East since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack was weak and ineffective. Since Donald Trump’s election earlier this month, many Jews in both Canada and the United States are expecting a sea change in the United States’ approach. Are they right?
Despite the president-elect’s recorded statements in favour of Israel, the reality is that, with Trump, you never know what you’re going to get until you get it.
And while Trump has given some reassuring words to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – such as “Do what you have to do,” in reference to Gaza – he has also made promises to America’s Arab community about ending the fighting. In theory, that may be at odds with unequivocal support for Israel’s war aims.
As a major player in the region, America’s next moves will have a significant impact on the ongoing conflicts, as well as the foreign policy of its allies such as Canada. (Next Tuesday, I’ll be joining the National Post to discuss this issue at a live virtual event. More information available here.)
And perhaps an even more important question is what the president-elect will do to counter the rise of noxious antisemitism in the Western world, which is eerily similar to movements a century ago that led to the rise of Nazi Germany and the Holocaust.
Already, there has been some movement that appears related to Trump’s election.
For instance, Qatar has suspended its role as a mediator in talks between Israel and Hamas. Key European countries are now pushing for a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear quagmire, and there are some positive signals that Israel and Hezbollah could finally agree on a ceasefire.
Ultimately, while it’s well known that Trump commands significant respect throughout much of the Arab world and that Israelis expect his administration to act “assertively” against Iran, only time will tell if the incoming president will act decisively enough in the region.
Trump’s influence over the recrudescence of antisemitism is even less certain.
While some in the Jewish community think a Trump presidency will be a good thing, it’s unlikely a change in the Oval Office will improve their safety or lift the darkness they’ve endured since Oct. 7.
This isn’t just because Trump himself has said disturbing things about Jews, or because some of his cabinet picks like Matt Gaetz have a “checkered record on antisemitism,” according to Jewish Insider magazine. Rather, it’s because Western societies are too far gone.
It would be incredibly naive to think an elected official – even one as powerful as the U.S. president – would be able to unwind the parasitic thinking we’ve allowed to take root in our universities, multilateral organizations, and newsrooms for decades.
Sure, Trump may very well bring about positive change in the Middle East, he might find a way to contain Iran, to end the violence and, crucially, to secure the release of the hostages. But American Jews will continue to face dangerous and at times deadly acts of violence, unimaginable acts of cruelty and intimidation, boycotts, and other forms of bigotry.
Likewise, here in Canada, we’re still going to have elected officials like Mississauga Mayor Carolyn Parrish comparing Yahya Sinwar to Nelson Mandela, schools playing Palestinian protest songs at Remembrance Day ceremonies, Jewish day schools being shot at, synagogues torched, calls for Jewish genocide, and weekly instances of jihadi cosplay in cities coast-to-coast.
This is a level of social and intellectual rot no politician could conceivably fix – and certainly not in four years. Israel’s war is a war that can be won with arms, with negotiating, and with military might. But our war, as Jews in the diaspora – the one we’re facing day in and day out – is a war of ideas, words, ideology and truth.
And it’s going to take a hell of a lot more than a strong military, and a change in government at home or abroad, to fix it.
Casey Babb is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, a fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, an associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute in London, and an advisor with Secure Canada in Toronto.