Quebec Mounties are gearing up for an influx of illegal border crossings should former President Donald Trump take the White House, an RCMP spokesperson told The Gazette Tuesday.
Observers are suggesting that another Trump presidency may result in increased illegal migration to Canada, given his promise of mass deportations of both legal and undocumented immigrants. Tuesday is election day in the United States, although it may be days before news agencies declare a winner.
“We’ve been preparing for a few months,” said RCMP sergeant Charles Poirier. “We have a contingency plan because we know that depending on (the results of) the election, there could be a complete turnaround on immigration. There could be a massive influx of migration, as there was during the Roxham Rd. crisis.”
The Roxham Rd. episode saw droves of migrants crossing the Quebec-New York border illegally near St-Bernard-de-Lacolle to claim asylum in Canada.
In recent months, Poirier said the RCMP has arrested between 10 and 100 migrants in Quebec per week. But over 90 per cent of them were “southbound” migrants hoping to cross into the United States. Those arrests are harder to make, he said, because the migrants are in Canada legally and it is not a crime to be near the U.S. border.
The RCMP can only arrest migrants travelling with a human smuggler, Poirier said. In those cases, the migrants have entered Canada legally and then head toward the U.S. border. The RCMP can detain them and transport them back to Montreal, but they almost always will attempt further crossings.
“Northbound” migrants can be arrested for having crossed into Canada illegally, Poirier said. Those migrants typically become asylum seekers.
Though southbound migration is the current norm, Poirier said the U.S. election results could change that.
“Whether it’s Trump or Harris who wins will completely change things for us.”
Should Trump win, Poirier said the RCMP will be prepared for a new migration crisis at the border. He said contingency plans include increasing the number of agents and vehicles near the border and communicating with U.S. agents.
The RCMP wouldn’t be starting from scratch, he said, having taken lessons from the Roxham Rd. crisis.
He said the RCMP expects the western stretch of the Quebec-U.S. border to remain a hotspot for illegal crossings. “The smuggling networks are set up in Montreal and the Greater Toronto Area.”
Poirier acknowledged that illegal migration is difficult for those living near the border. A woman who declined to share her name recently told The Gazette that she often sees migrants turning up on her Roxham Rd. property.
“There are people getting lost,” Poirier said. “Often when they’re lost, they’ll knock on any door to ask for help.”
RCMP agents have been going door-to-door in border communities, Poirier said, advising locals to phone 911 should they come across migrants and not to approach the migrants themselves.
Illegal migration is especially dangerous for the migrants themselves, Poirier said, with some of them dying. In 2023, eight people died in the St. Lawrence River trying to cross into the U.S.
“Deaths make headlines,” Poirier said. “What don’t make headlines are those who had amputations, who had severe hypothermia.”