OTTAWA — Support for federal New Democrats in B.C. and the Prairies is dropping at a “concerning” rate for leader Jagmeet Singh, a new poll suggests, despite recent gains by his provincial counterparts in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
The Postmedia-Leger poll finds that the NDP’s popularity has dropped two per cent nationally, to 15 per cent, since the last poll on Sept. 30.
Conservatives remain at 42-per-cent support, while the Liberals are at 26 per cent, a one-point increase. The Bloc Québécois’ national support bumped up two points to nine per cent, translating to 36-per-cent popularity in Quebec.
But digging deeper into regional variations show a problematic trend for the federal NDP, said Leger vice-president Andrew Enns.
The poll suggests the federal NDP’s support in British Columbia has fallen to 19 per cent, a 10-point drop since late September when it was at 29 per cent. It also shows the party losing four points in the Manitoba and Saskatchewan Prairie region, from 25 to 21 per cent.
“They’re certainly not regions of strength for the NDP, and that’s concerning” for the party, Enns said.
The NDP’s support remains unchanged in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.
“They have to do well in British Columbia, quite frankly,” Enns said.
“They have a lot of seats in that province and they have to be a bit worried that the federal Tories are going to start encroaching into some of their areas.”
Enns said the drop is all the more remarkable given the recent boosts in popularity for provincial NDP parties in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
In October 2023, the Manitoba NDP won government after nearly 11 years of Progressive Conservative rule.
Last month, Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck led her party to its strongest showing in nearly two decades, winning 27 of the province’s 61 ridings.
In B.C., the provincial NDP was able to win re-election with a thin majority last month, although it lost seats from the 2020 election.
Enns says that Singh is likely pondering why those provincial NDP brands did relatively well, while his federal brand is struggling.
The Saskatchewan NDP leader also distanced herself from the federal brand during the provincial election, which Enns said should trouble Singh.
“That disconnect is challenging for the federal NDP,” Enns said.
“The NDP, and Jagmeet Singh, has had trouble connecting with Canadians for quite a while,” he added.
The new poll also suggests the rise in the Bloc Québécois’ popularity in Quebec suggests the party is eating into Liberal and Conservative support there.
“Conservatives can’t ignore that because they have between 10 and 12 seats that they want to continue to hold in Quebec,” Enns said. “And it obviously gets very difficult for them to grow that (number) if the Bloc Québécois keeps going up.”
“But I also think the Liberals have to be a little a little nervous about that as well, because that probably starts to put some of those suburban Montreal seats that the Liberals hold … in play,” he added.
The Liberals’ fear is likely compounded by their byelection loss in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun to the Bloc in September.
Still, over the last four months, polls are showing the Liberals’ support slowly trending upward after roughly a year of stumbling, Enns said.
That uptick has come largely at the expense of the NDP, while strong levels of Conservative support have remained virtually untouched.
“They (Liberals) don’t seem to be, at this stage of the game, chipping away at any sort of Conservative voters, which … at some point has got to start to happen” if the Liberals want to stay in government, Enns said.
“If you’re the prime minister, you’re not out of the woods by any stretch, but if nothing else, it probably bolsters the prime minister’s message to his caucus that, ‘look, we’re making progress,’” he added.
There remains “significant dissatisfaction” with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, the poll shows.
Only 27 per cent of poll respondents said they were satisfied with the current Liberal government, while 68 per cent said they were dissatisfied.
The polling was done between Nov. 1 and 3 with a sample of 1,549 Canadians via an online panel. While margins of error can’t be applied to online panels, a probability sample of this size would be plus or minus 2.44 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
National Post
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