By electing Donald Trump to a second term, American voters may have averted more bloodshed in the Middle East, according to Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, a prominent Israeli military figure and security expert.
Wars in the region are likelier to end quickly and decisively, he told the National Post in a Toronto interview last week.
“Trump might seize the moment and help dismantle the ‘Shia axis,’” he said, referring to the Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic regime in Iran. “If the U.S. builds a coalition and is willing to deal with the regime, then they might embolden the Iranian people to fight the regime.”
A president Kamala Harris would have, in contrast, continued “with the policies of appeasement, wanting to de-escalate and ceasefire,” he told the Post. “It will simply be a harder war if Israel goes at it alone; it will take a longer time, and more people will die.”
Avivi was in Toronto on Oct. 30 on a speaking tour that also includes strops in Ottawa and Miami. The local talks were organized by Canadian Antisemitism Education Foundation, Toronto Zionist Council and the Israel Defense and Security Forum.
In his Toronto keynote address called “The War with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said he believes “most of the Iranians love truth, hate this regime, and will be very glad to see it go.”
Israel’s Oct. 26 counteroffensive in Iran crippled some missile production facilities and air defence systems. But the “regime now is in a very sensitive moment” that probably leaves them more desperate to build a nuclear bomb, he said. “So, the race is on. The only way we have, is to attack and destroy them, fast.”
Avivi joined the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in 1987, and has held positions as director of the Office of the Chief of Staff and deputy comptroller of the Security Forces. During the 2002 Operation Defensive Shield, he led a battalion of 800 soldiers in Judea and Samaria (West Bank).
Three years after his retirement in 2017, he founded the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF). The non-partisan organization consists of 32,000 members of Israeli security forces, and aims to educate and advocate for Israel’s national security needs and Middle East policies. The organization has gained significant political and media influence. In 2018, operatives that would eventually join his team participated in capturing Iran’s nuclear archive, consisting of literally tons of information.
While serving in Gaza between 1997 and 1999, Avivi observed a “very fast build-up of terror infrastructure.” By 2005, he held the position of aide-de-camp of the Chief of General Staff of the IDF, Lt. General Moshe Yaalon, and participated in cabinet meetings with then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on the disengagement when Israel removed all Jewish settlements and military presence in Gaza.
“I was completely against this,” he said in the interview with the Post, warning the cabinet it would take only a year before Gaza would become “Hamasistan.” He also correctly predicted that “endless amount of weapons, technology, money, terrorists,” would flow through Gaza. But the Israeli public and army brass eventually “were sold on the idea” of the 2005 disengagement, with many believing the Gaza Strip would become “the next Singapore.”
Avivi predicted the mass terror attack that would occur on Oct. 7, 2023, when in 2022 the IDSF released a 300-page, “very detailed national security assessment” that essentially said a “multi-pronged war is imminent,” led by Iran.
The report was given to the prime minister, the head of the National Security Council, the heads of Mossad (the country’s security agency) and former prime ministers. “So they knew.” In addition to the many military weaknesses that have been already revealed since Oct. 7, he said other factors in the lead-up to the massacre further weakened Israel’s position.
Jihadists, he said, were “emboldened” after seeing the Biden administration’s “retreat from Afghanistan” that “created momentum among our enemies.” Israel meanwhile, was experiencing “a lot of distractions” including five elections between April 2019 and November 2022, demonstrations against proposed judicial reforms, and an “era of prosperity” of the Abraham Accords that led Israelis to believe that the Middle East was taking a new shape.
Avivi’s warnings to the Israeli government were stark: choose a pre-emptive strike as was done in the Six-Day War in 1967, or choose to be blindsided as happened during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. “And unfortunately, we chose the Yom Kippur scenario.”
The Americans were warned, too. In his Toronto speech, he said that in March 2023, his organization sent a delegation to Washington to meet with senators and congressmen on the foreign relations committee, to warn them of an impending war in the Middle East. “If you don’t stand strong in the Middle East, you’re going to war,” was his team’s message. The response they heard back was that resources were tied up in Asia readying for a possible Chinese attack against Taiwan, and that the Americans were helping Ukraine fight Russia.
“Americans do not want the trauma of another Afghanistan, but Iran is different,” Avivi said in the speech. He believes a U.S.-led coalition will result in a swift defeat of Iran, and wished Canada could play a role.
But said in the interview that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s policies and statements show he “doesn’t understand that we’re fighting evil. Pure evil.” He said this is why a shift in government for both Canada and the U.S. will be “a very defining moment, because all this is happening in a very critical time.”
“It can be a big win without too many repercussions, because Iran is weak. Israel needs to win decisively on all fronts, and not give up, and not stop, and not do ceasefires. We have an historical opportunity to really dismantle the whole Shia axis.”
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